Repercussions of Retreat
Eftychis | 12 01 2007If you're a first time visitor, you may want to subscribe to our RSS feed, which will keep you up to date with all the latest New School Politics posts. Thanks for visiting!
If the United States fails to stop the fighting in Iraq, the result will be a regional war between the Sunni and the Shiite states. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and possibly Egypt will fight to keep the Iranians from obtaining nuclear weapons or from exerting a greater sphere of influence over the region. The Saudis do not want majority rule in Iraq—that would mean Shiite control. A Shiite-controlled government will turn Iraq into a satellite state for Iran, which would further spread the Iranian sphere of influence.
If Iraq is not brought under control, a regional middle eastern war will erupt. At the very least, it would stifle the world wide economy. Att worst, it would spawn the fourth world war. If the Saudi’s and Iranians enter into war the population in Iraq will be caught in the middle, leading to hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of deaths. Israeli security will most certainly be threatened which will force Israel to act against either Iran or Syria. The mutual defense agreement between Iran and Syria will prompt the mobilization of Hezbollah and will propagate an invasion by Israel into Lebanon, which will lead to a bloody street-by-street war. If such an event occurs, the presence of Iranian and Syrian military advisors as well as complex weapons systems will lead to an Israeli response upon targets in Iran and Syria. By now the entire Middle East will be destabilized and oil prices will have skyrocketed.
The international community’s relationship with Russia will also be strained as they continue (official or unofficial) to support of Iran. As oil prices sore in the middle east, much of Europe will come to rely even more heavily on Russia for natural gas and oil supplies which will further increase the Russian monopoly over the energy needs of eastern and even western Europe. The disruptions in the Middle East will mean that both America and Chinese oil supplies will be squeezed and both nations economies will loose momentum. On the other side of the world a maniac, who has aligned himself with Iran, controls the only major oil-producing nation in Latin America.
The more American’s view the world they must see the number of enemies all around them. The Venezuelans, Iranians, Syrians, and even the Russians hope to see the demise of the United States. American’s withdrawing from Iraq will be the spark that ignites the third world war, if the nation is fearful of loosing a few thousand lives to correct the course in Iraq, then they should be horrified of the millions that will be lost because of the consequences of abandoning it.
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Very intruiging post. It plays out very much like a
great american | 12 01 2007Very intruiging post. It plays out very much like a story. It appears like a very gloomy scenario, but it is also reasoned out. I agree that the reprecussions of simply giving up could be terrable–but not b/c of a regional war–but because of Islamists ultimately ending up without any obsticles in the M.East.
Even if Iraq is currently a mess, that doesnt change the fact that Islamism is still actively striving against the West. And it must be confronted.
And that starts with confronting Iran.
Thanks for posting. The situation in the middle east is
Eftychis | 13 01 2007Thanks for posting. The situation in the middle east is not good, there are hundreds of scenarios that could unfold, and this is just one of them. I think that anyone who reads it can see that this is a realistic scenario, and it shows what is at stake and also how the middle east and America’s regional policy there will effect the rest of the world.