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President Bush’s mideast tour was kicked off amidst unsetting news the other day, as Iranian Navy vessels seemed to come a bit too close to a US Navy battle group in the region. Al Jazeera has footage of the incident, released earlier in the day by the Department of Defense.

The United States responded harhsly to the incident, as they should have, and President Bush condemned the actions of the rogue Iranian speedboats as “threatening world peace.” The situation in Iran has intensified in recent weeks, after a recently announced NIE announced Iran had not seriously pursued nuclear weapons in several years [PDF]. US war games in the region have served as suitable provocation for Iran, and the Islamic Republic offers rebukes every time the United States participates in an exercise that seems to threaten their security.

Photographs of the Speedboats that Swarmed US Navy Vessels [Courtesy CNN/US Dept. of Defense]

The United States has treaded carefully, however, ensuring that they never get close enough to Iranian forces to provoke an attack. It doesn’t seem like the Iranians are being as careful. The recent “scare tactic” (if that’s what it can be termed) took us dangerously close to war with Iran. While the Iranian nation does not serve the interest of the United States in the region, toppling it would result in the implosion of American foreign policy. Nations that maintain friendly but cold relationships with the United States, like Russia, could quickly become our enemies, prompting a new Cold War or, worse yet, World War III. I’m the first to admit that Bush’s policy certainly doesn’t leave much room for action on the part of the Iranian government. Previous attempts at goodwill were rejected by the Bush Administration, which seems as eager to invade Iran as they were with Iraq. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s demagogue Prime Minister, always insists that it is the Bush Administration his country disapproves of, not the American people themselves. Rogue actions from his military, however, could further turn US public opinion against the Islamic Republic and result in an attack.

The US is all too wary of naval attacks since the attack on the USS Cole in Yemen. In conventional warfare, a bigger ship bristles with more weapons and more firepower. In this era of terrorism and suicide attacks, a small vessel filled to the brim with explosives can sink a considerably larger ship like the USS Port Royal. The appearance of the flotilla of smaller boats was accompanied by threatening radio messages in English, “I am coming at you. You will blow up in a couple of minutes.” The threat of attack was all too present in this situation, and the commander of one of the US Navy vessels was seconds away from ordering an attack when the Iranian boats turned around. That order could have started a propaganda machine, fueled by the neoconservative hawks, similar to the one that erupted after the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964 that began the Vietnam War.

The USS Hopper at Sea, One of the Ships Surrounded by Iranian Navy Speedboats [Courtesy CNN/US Navy]

Neither party can afford war. The United States, bogged down in Iraq, has too many international obligations to sustain a winning war in Iran. The failure of US policy in Iraq and Afghanistan should act as an indicator that an invasion would not be the wisest idea. While things are looking up for the United States in Iraq, the war against the insurgency has not ended there. Inciting war in Iran could push Iraq to further turmoil and leave the United States with a Middle East that is heavily aligned against it. Iran seems not to want war either, and has pushed for peaceful reforms in the development of nuclear energy with Russia. The “Iran-Russia” axis has aligned against the United States, a power they see as capitalist and militarily invasive. While the new alliance could cause problems for the West, it’s in the best interest of both parties to pursue peaceful relations and continue economic development. Time Magazine went so far as to suggest that the action of Ahmadinejad’s forces was an attempt to force the United States Navy out of the region. I’m not in agreement with that statement, but it is in Ahmadinejad’s interests to have foreign powers out of his way while he builds relationships with other countries based on Iran’s oil industry.

The American people are being tested. In 1964, they gave into the demands of a warmongering president and ended up tangled in a twelve year conflict in Vietnam. In 2004, they were led into a baseless war by a president who manipulated their fears. There too, they ended up in a conflict that’s sure to last more than the twelve years the United States spent in Vietnam. In 2008, they should stand up for the democratic and diplomatic values of the United States and ensure a conflict with Iran is averted.

Update: Iran’s own “update” on the situation aired on state-owned television today and shows a far more peaceful and routine encounter. The US Navy admitted that the audio they merged with video seen on the above DoD video may not be from the same source. More to come as the conflict continues or becomes resolved…

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The Is the Strait of Hormuz incident our generation’s Gulf of Tonkin? by New School Politics, unless otherwise expressly stated, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.