New School Politics

Iran Provokes the West

Eftychis | 1 04 2007

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Aside from Rosie O’Donnell and Mahmoud Admadinejad, most of the world is aware of that it is Iran who has been provoking the West in recent days. I remember reading two Fridays ago about the seizure of the fifteen British sailors and marines before any American media began reporting it. Indeed, it seems that as I predicted the situation has escalated. Aside from historical pretense, it seems that Iran is preparing for a longer standoff.

During the embassy crisis, America had one advantage prior to conducting its failed rescue attempt; the hostages were in one location. The Iranians have learned their lesson and they have apparently scattered the British sailors throughout the country, or at least in multiple locations within Tehran. This makes any British rescue attempt much more difficult. At the same time, the British cannot allow the sailors to be brought to trial, as it will be a propaganda disaster.

The Iranians are hoping that the British will be forced to the negotiating table with the Russians. It is clear that neither America, nor Britain will consider making prisoner exchanges (which would also be a disaster and an incentive for hostage taking in the future). However, there are military options that the United States and Britain could take with the full support of the international community that would give them the upper hand in the negotiating table and it would also demonstrate that such blatant disregard of international law will not be tolerated.

One idea that was considered by the US military during the Iranian hostage crisis was to use naval and sea power to secure several Iranian Islands in the Persian Gulf and to then exchange the Islands for the hostages. Jimmy Carter committed to a failed rescue attempt, but it does not mean such a proposal would not work during this crisis. Britain should immediately begin a massive PR campaign at the United Nations, in the EU, with members of the Arab League, and with the media to use all of their available intelligence to prove that the British sailors were in international waters and kidnapped illegally. Additionally, in a statement to the Security Council and to Iran, Britain should make it clear that Iran will face harsh consequences if the British soldiers are not freed within ten days, or if they are brought to trial.

If the British sailors are not released or if they are brought to trail, American and British naval forces in the Persian Gulf should seize several Iranian islands that provide economic and political significance. This should of course correspond with a total naval blockade of all Iranian ports in the gulf. England could then use this territory to get an upper hand in the negotiating table and offer an exchange of the British sailors for the Iranian Islands.

If the sailors or marines are harmed in any way, coalition air and sea power should decimate all Iranian government and military assets along with using precision air strikes to cripple the Iranian nuclear program. In any case, US soldiers in Iraq should be protected against any Iranian retaliation as all American forces were given proper equipment prior to the invasion incase Saddam used biological, nuclear, or chemical warfare in his defense.

As I write this another news story about growing tensions with Iran seems to be breaking, and I am sure that when I awake tomorrow the situation will be different than when I went to bed. Out of all of this, the most disturbing fact may be the lack of appearance by Iranian President Mahmoud Admadinejad, which may suggest that the country is now in total control of the hard liners and clerics.