New School Politics

If you're a first time visitor, you may want to subscribe to our RSS feed, which will keep you up to date with all the latest New School Politics posts. Thanks for visiting!

Had I taken some of these thoughts into consideration I would not have predicted Romney to win Florida and despite what Ryan says about my Romney bias, my thoughts were based upon analysis of polling information that showed the economy as the top issue for Floridians, and his rising numbers in the polls. The below analysis by Jay Cost is terrific and I suggest that anyone interested in what occurred in the Sunshine State read it over.

On a side note-it looks as if contrary to what the pundits thought a couple weeks ago, the Republican nomination might be locked up be February 6th and the Democrats may now be the party to go to the convention.

Here’s a portion of “How McCain Won” by Jay Cost:

John McCain won Florida by putting together the same basic voting coalition he forged in New Hampshire and South Carolina. What is impressive is that he did it in a closed primary. Registered Independents and Democrats were not allowed to vote, but McCain still won. Let’s take a look at how he did it:

McCain once again won those who are disenchanted by the Bush presidency. Most Florida Republicans (68%) approve of the Bush administration. Romney won them, 35% to 28%. McCain, however, scored an overwhelming, 20-point victory among the 32% of voters who disapprove. I think this is one of the evolving stories of the Republican contest. If you like Bush, you go to Romney (or one of the other candidates). If you dislike Bush, you go to McCain.

Popularity: 42% [?]

With some sources confirming, it appears that McCain is pulling ahead in Florida and will probably win the state ahead by a score of 35%-31% with about 60% reporting.

Also, rumors are that Rudy will drop out of the race after a third place finish in Florida and will endorse John McCain in California tomorrow. Time broke the story. This could really aid McCain on Super Tuesday, especially in the northeast, where he is the clear frontrunner as of now.

Also, Huckabee intends to stay in the race, which will probably rob Romney of valuable conservative voters.

UPDATE: NBC News and National Journal report that Giuliani will drop out of the race and endorse McCain at the Reagan Library tomorrow (re: Sr. Giuliani official).

Popularity: 27% [?]

Reports of voter fraud in Florida are rampant.  Here’s an account from the Sunset Sentinel:

In northern Coral Springs, near the Sawgrass Expressway and Coral Ridge Drive, David Nirenberg arrived to vote as an independent. Nevertheless, he said poll workers insisted he choose a party ballot.

“He said to me, ‘Are you Democrat or Republican?’ I said, ‘Neither, I am independent.’ He said, ‘Well, you have to pick one,”’ Nirenberg said.

In Florida, only those who declare a party are allowed to cast a vote in that party’s presidential primary.

Nirenberg said he tried to explain to the poll worker that he should not vote on a party ballot because of his “no party affiliation” status.

Nirenberg said a second poll worker was called over who agreed that independents should not use party ballots, but said they had received instructions to the contrary.

“He said, ‘Ya know, that is kind of funny, but it was what we were told.’ … I was shocked when they told me that.” Nirenberg said he went ahead and voted for John McCain.

Hmm… can someone say that rinos are no longer an endangered species?

Popularity: 44% [?]

Contrary to Efty’s Florida projection, which is clearly clouded by his pro-Romney bias, I think that John McCain will come out on top of the results tonight in a close race despite Florida being a closed primary, Romney’s debate performance, and Romney surging for the past two weeks in Florida polling.

My prediction is based on two reasons essentially:

1. McCain is up by a small margin in the vast majority of recent FL polls

2. McCain still has unseen momentum from his endorsements from Governor Crist and Senator Martinez, both popular GOP Floridians.

Since McCain’s two recent endorsements he has received a bump in the last week which I believe would continue to have a positive effect even if the primary wasn’t held until next Tuesday.

There really is not any legitimate or scientific evidence to predict that Romey will win, the wishes of his supporters not withstanding.

The only other prediction I could make would be to not make one, and declare it a pure tossup considering how close the polls are. But what’s the fun in that?

Popularity: 23% [?]

I am making a bold prediction, but I believe that Romney will take Florida tomorrow.

I know Ryan already posted about McCain’s big endorsement from Governor Crist but the truth is the only real endorsement that matters in Florida is Jeb Bush’s and it is evident that he will not show his support for anyone prior to the state’s primary. While Crist may be able to help get slightly bigger crowds for McCain during stump speeches, he cannot overcome McCain’s two biggest challenges-he is too liberal and is doing nothing to address the housing crisis in his speeches while in Florida. On Meet the Press yesterday McCain said that the economic challenges the country faces are temporary and will be overcome; this may be true, but for the millions of voters whose houses have been foreclosed and whose stock portfolios are dwindling in value these words provide no consolation. Mitt Romney has the economy as his issue and as we can see from Michigan, McCain’s downplaying of the current state of the nations economic health does not benefit him.

Although the polls are not showing this, I believe that Joe Scarborough was right in his prediction today that Mitt Romney will win tomorrow. Many of the voters in central Florida who want to vote for Mike Huckabee have realized in the past two days that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain and like Rudy, he simply does not represent their values. Additionally it appears that because of Romney’s economic experience many of the economic conservatives who had been supporting Rudy or Thompson are turning his way.

Despite McCain’s untrue attacks on Romney’s Iraq War record, he has been unable to change the topic of discussion. No matter how many times he mentions his support of the surge, it does not make the thousands of foreclosed houses in Florida go away. The issue on the forefront of everyones minds in Florida is the economy and nothing McCain can do will change that. Let us not forget where Rudy Giuliani currently sits in the polls, a distant third place. Rudy Giuliani has done nothing but espouse his national security experience for the past month in Florida and it has done nothing for him in the polls.

As long as the issue is the economy in the forefront of people’s minds Romney will out perform his competition.

Popularity: 38% [?]

First, last night Governor Charlie Crist of Florida endorsed Sen. McCain for president (video here). This is very big for John McCain in Florida. Crist is a very popular governor with around 60% approval. This comes just days after FL Senator Mel Martinez also gave McCain an endorsement that could especially help him with Cuban-American Republicans this Tuesday.

At the time these two endorsements came in, polling indicated that the Florida GOP primary was neck  and neck between McCain and Mitt Romney, with Romney on the upswing from Thompson’s withdrawal and an excellent showing in Thursday’s debate.

On the Democratic side, the New York Times ran an editorial by Caroline Kennedy endorsing Barack Obama. The opinion was how one would expect yet profound in some ways. It made the case that Obama was the first candidate she knew of who could unite and inspire hope among Americans since her father. Here’s a taste:

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

Its funny because the editorial cites almost nothing substantive, rather chosing to concentrate on just the tone and affect of the Senator’s campaign. At the same, the Kennedy name still means a lot to many–hence why both Obama and Clinton have been hoping for Ted Kennedy’s endorsement–and the endorsement certainly could compound the bounce he ought to receive from his SC victory.

Popularity: 25% [?]

The Florida debate was very different than any of the GOP debates we have seen so far. The format of the debate itself is not that different, but rather the circumstances surrounding it make it one of the most important discussions amongst the candidates thus far. This is the first debate to occur in either party after one of the major candidates dropped out; Fred Thompson was the only candidate perceived as having a chance to obtain his parties nomination who has so far dropped out. Unlike the past several debates in South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire this event was more of an introduction for the candidates than a closing argument. Due to the tight primary schedule, none of the candidates with the exception of Giuliani have invested great amounts of time in the state thus far and it was their first opportunity to reach Floridian GOP primary voters on their local broadcast stations. Finally, the primary this debate is intended for has the potential to kill off another presidential bid; of course that is if Rudy Giuliani does not win in the sunshine state. With the high stakes surround tonight’s MSNBC debate it is also curious that it was such a passive event, indeed the whole affair was quite civil compared to Monday’s CNN run Democratic blood bath. The question worth asking is, with all of the pressure and importance of this debate, who came out on top? It was without a question Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

It should be first noted that Governor Romney has done something significant over the past three-weeks he has changed his image. In what has to be one of the more impressive political come backs in modern history, the Governor has recovered from two embarrassing defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire and has done so with a whole new approach. As one of his supporters from the beginning, I saw his comprehension of the economy along with his private sector experience and logical consultant based thinking to be his greatest strengths. For far too long his campaign marketed him as something he was not, the GOP candidate least offensive to the many different colored elephants underneath the GOP tent. He won Michigan and Nevada because he spoke to the voters in those states about the economy with a resonance, passion, and understanding that none of the other candidates can. Just as John McCain can discuss the war in Iraq with more authority than his rivals, Romney can do the same on the economy. Luckily for Romney, the focus of the election has shifted in the past two months from the war to the looming economic crisis. This truth along with his new found confidence in himself enabled him to steal the debate from McCain and Giuliani.

The first half an hour of the debate focused on the economy and Romney dominated those first thirty minutes. It became quickly evident that he has made a commitment to tell Floridians that he will turn-around their hurting economy and he was very effective in conveying that message. The fact that Romney has been able to remove some of the shine from his almost too polished demeanor has made him more appealing to voters, but what really helped him tonight was that none of his opponents questioned him on his record. In fact, they did something even stranger than not attack him-they engaged him in ways that provided him with openings to explain even more of his policies and to have even more air time. No one did poorly in tonight’s debate, but Romney just did better than his opponents. At one point I recall Governor Romney received two questions from the moderators and then two from the other candidates; because of this attempted gang up he was given an almost five minute monologue with the voters.

Participants in the GOP Debate on Thursday (L to R): Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Paul, and Huckabee

Romney walked away with the debate because he was able to differentiate himself from the other candidates through his discussion of the economy, his witty attacks on the Clinton’s, and his well-versed rebuttals to Tim Russet’s criticisms of his personal wealth. McCain and Rudy did not win because neither of them were able to grab an issue, the war is McCain’s strong suit but with the shifting focus towards the economy it is clear that he needs to branch out onto other issues. Giuliani’s problem is that he did nothing to convince Florida voters to support him over Mitt Romney for economic reasons; in fact Giuliani talked less about his economic achievements in New York than he has in past debates. Mike Huckabee went into this debate knowing that he will not do well in Florida and I believe he made a wise choice to stick to his social conservative stances and not try and promote himself as an economic or national security candidate. As usual, the other candidate who did very well was Ron Paul; like in most of the debates he partakes however he received very few questions. Another fault of McCain and Giuliani was that neither of them made an attempt to convince former Fred Thompson supporters not to drift towards Romney and polls indicate that the 9% of support Thompson had may be enough to put the Massachusetts Governor into first place. There are still several days until the Florida primary, but if I was a Floridian GOP voter with many foreclosed homes in my neighborhood and tonight was my first introduction to any of the candidates I believe I would have only seen one viable candidate on the stage.

Editor’s Note: Images were added to this post at 4PM on Friday, January 25th.

Popularity: 39% [?]

Here’s what I am expecting for tonights results:

Clinton and Romney win Nevada’s caucuses

Huckabee erks one out over McCain in South Carolina’s primary

If this happens, things will simply be looking a little better for Clinton (who is still the overall frontrunner) going into next weeks Dem SC primary which should be tight (and probably favors Obama as of now).

On the GOP side, however, my scenario would make that race even more confusing, and reassert Florida as a toss-up primary and possibly a big swing state for the Republican nomination. It would also bring Rudy Giuliani into the thick of things in Florida.

If McCain can manage to pull it off in South Carolina, however, he can probably claim frontrunner status again, as he is already slightly ahead in Florida and National polls.

Romney’s decision to concentrate on Nevada is a safe, and probably wise, call. He is definitely still a prominant contender, and he appears to have support among much of the party faithful as he has been doing consistantly well among conservative Republicans in the early primaries and seems to be gaining favor among notable conservatives on the radio, such as Rush Limbaugh.

Stay tuned, tonight should be interesting.

Popularity: 24% [?]

With less than 10% of the precincts reporting, the Michigan primary was called for Mitt Romney. As of now it looks like McCain will finish second, followed by Huckabee, and Ron Paul in fourth.

With many viewing McCain as the frontrunner coming into MI, this is evidence that Republicans remain uncommitted to any candidate. This being said, I am not at all surprised by the outcome in Michigan.

This race is a complete crap shoot. I would look for Huckabee to win South Carolina. I don’t know what will happen in Nevada, although I doubt it matters. Florida is really a total tossup at this point, which is why the eventual winner there may be a good indicator of who will be the nominee.

Then again, I could be wrong…

Popularity: 23% [?]