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Any student of modern history can attest that the cold war era saw an international system structured in a bi-polar manner. On the right was the United States, its satellite states, and its allies; on the left was the Soviet Union with its satellite states, and its Communist allies. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the international system that the world had become accustomed to suddenly collapsed. Like all current affairs, to fully comprehend the nature of today’s international system we must first analyze those of the past.

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Popularity: 48% [?]

John McCain has all the national security credentials he needs. He was one of the few to stand up to the failed Iraq policy and to question the Bush administration; he can be partially credited with the succesful change in policy we see today. While McCain also has a good reputation on spending, his economic qualifications (not that Obama’s or Hillary’s are noteworthy) are lacking.
Mitt Romney, a man who I see as an ideal candidate for his Vice Presidential pick (I of course did support his bid for president), has the economic qualifications that McCain needs on the ticket with him. Of course,
McCain is already known to the American people as someone who is a hero, tough on spending, and right on Iraq. Romney over the course of the last 8 months is someone who has built tremendous name recognition and many are now aware of his accomplishments in business, as the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic chairman, and as Governor of the State of Massachusetts. Mitt Romney should be John McCain’s running mate in his November presidential bid.

There are several qualifications that McCain’s running mate will need to satisfy:

1. Executive
2. True Conservative
3. Bring in additional states
4. Have a strong base of support
5. Be media tested

1. McCain needs to pick an executive for his running mate. I would be hard pressed to find a person more experienced (perhaps General David Patreaus in Iraq, but it is rumored he is planning for a run after 2012) than Governor Romney. Romney was of course the lead consultant for Bain Capital, then the manager of their investment fund, the chairman of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics (where he turned a $500+ deficit into a $300 million surplus), and Governor of Massachusetts. As Jim Cramer said, “Romney is the best business man in North America.” That is quite a statement coming from Cramer and that kind of language speaks volumes about his expertise in dealing with the economy. No one could argue with what a job he did in Utah’s Olympics where he is still to this day hailed as a hero (to understand why, research the financial disasters that typically follow Olympics such as in Atlanta, Athens, etc…). An associate I know who is an active member of the US Olympic Committee, former Gold Medal champion, and Hillary Clinton supporter even admitted to me that Governor Romney was one of the most professional individuals she ever worked with. Coming from someone across the aisle, that is something that should also speak volumes about his leadership ability. While his time in Massachusetts was short, he did manage to energize the economy, pass education reform, balance the budget, and is the only Governor in the Union to have addressed healthcare. His healthcare plan is far from perfect, but two things should be noted. A-he was a Republican elected in Massachusetts, one of the most liberal states in the country. B-He was successful in legislating in the state. This is significant because one of the primary jobs of the VP is to act in the Senate as a representative for the administration in power (and of course break tied votes). Romney has proven that he is capable of running the country in the event that something happens to McCain, and also that he can perform all of the tasks required of a Vice President with tremendous skill.

2. John McCain needs to pick a true conservative to be his Vice Presidential candidate. There are some who claim that Romney was a flip-flopper, or that he lacked “social conservative” credentials, but in the last days of the campaign it became apparent that he was whole heartedly accepted by the conservative movement in the party. He is the only prominent Republican who can ensure that the powerful “wall street conservatives” do not stray to the left and fundraise for either Obama or Hillary. Romney has been a strong fiscal conservative all his career and despite what he said in his 1992 senatorial bid against Ted Kennedy (the strongest opponent Kennedy has yet faced), Romney did com down on the “right” side of life while he was Governor of Massachusetts. Aside from Newt Gingrich , I cannot think of a more prominent conservative; but again like many strong conservatives, Gingrich lacks the vital executive experience that Romney carriers. McCain and his Vice Presidential Search Committee will be hard pressed to find any prominent conservative as qualified as Mitt Romney.

3. Mitt Romney won by overwhelming margins in Wyoming, Utah, and many other strongly conservative states during the primary season. I have been to three western states since Christmas (Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho) and I noticed that almost every Republican I encountered in all three states were Romney supporters. Additionally, Mitt Romney worked very hard to strengthen his social conservative message in evangelical states during the primary season and it is doubtful that he will have much more convincing to do. He and Mike Huckabee were the two candidates fighting over the socially conservative voters, but Huckabee lacks the important ability to also court true fiscal conservatives at the same time. It should be important to note that Romney had the best record in attracting a broad range of self identified conservatives in the primary season, Romney is one of the only men who has the ability to repair the coalition that Ronald Reagan built. Governor Romney also was of course the Governor of Massachusetts, one of the most liberal states in the country. That in itself is a feat that the McCain campaign should examine closely, I doubt that there are too many other individuals who could perform as well in both conservative states and liberal ones as Mitt Romney. His 1992 senatorial bid against Ted Kennedy was also one of the most difficult fights Kennedy has ever faced in his long standing Senatorial career. While McCain can attract many independents in the next election, he will need someone like Romney to garner the support of the parties true conservatives. Unless Bloomberg had entered this race, there is not another executive in the country aside from Mitt Romney with the ability to get overwhelming support of the business vote. Romney can attract the conservative votes that McCain needs in November and for that reason alone he should be on McCain’s short list.

4. Mitt Romney already has a strong base of support. At the end of his presidential bid, Romney was hailed as a true conservative at CPAC2008 and there were literally tears in the room when he announced with withdrawal from the race. Romney did manage to correct his message at the end of the campaign to that of the “economic leader” and “business expert”, he was the one who could “bring change to Washington.” It is clear that Romney has the support of many conservatives in the party who are still hesitant of McCain. If McCain wants to sure up these votes, he should turn to Romney. Romney also has one of the best campaign teams ever assembled. It is no secret that he is most likely planning a ‘12 run (a source close to Romney has confirmed that to me in an email), and that is ready to go on a moments notice because of his continued political aspirations. Romney’s campaign team would be a tremendous asset to McCain (someone who is a notoriously bad campaigner). The key to Romney’s campaign team is also his finance staff led by Spencer Zwick , one of the most talented fundraisers in the GOP. Of course, the amount of money Romney raised pales in comparison to that of the Democratic candidates, but even without his own personal contributions his financing ability vastly outstripped all of his Republican rivals. The Bush administration is also pushing for an M&M ticket. While this fact may deter some who fear connections with Bush as a possible hinderance in the next election, it is important to remember that Karl Rove, perhaps the greatest campaign strategist alive is not only a strong proponent of the ticket, but is also a McCain advisor. If the ticket did not provide the best possible means for a Republican victory, I doubt Rove would be calling for it.

5. Like John McCain, Mitt Romney is media tested. He faced a brutal race with demeaning attack ads when he ran against Ted Kennedy’s political machine in 1992. He had to fight an uphill battle for his gubernatorial race in Massachusetts, and he won. He also faced much scrutiny against John McCain and the other Republican rivals during the primary season. Many claimed he was the best debater of the GOP nominees and with the exception of Barrack Obama, he certainly had the best TV presence of anyone on either side of the race. While there may be many other conservatives in the race who have good records, none of them have the spotless personal record that Romney has and very few people in the country have the media exposure that he possesses. Romney is cool in front of the camera, that is another trait the McCain campaign should look upon very favorably.

Mitt Romney satisfies all of the qualifications to be President of the United States, let alone a running mate. If it were not the personal dislike between McCain and Governor Romney, the ticket would be obvious and it would already be solidified. Yet, these are two adults who have spent the last twenty fives years of their lives negotiating (legislating for McCain, business for Romney) and who both know how to put past differences behind them. After spending years in the Hanoi Hilton, I believe that Senator McCain can forgive Romney for the policy attack ads he ran against him in the primary states. Whatever personal reasons McCain has for disliking Mitt Romney he needs to overcome them. For the future of the free world, these two men should be able to overcome their personal squabbles, if not-perhaps neither are fit to sit in the oval office.

Popularity: 52% [?]

Had I taken some of these thoughts into consideration I would not have predicted Romney to win Florida and despite what Ryan says about my Romney bias, my thoughts were based upon analysis of polling information that showed the economy as the top issue for Floridians, and his rising numbers in the polls. The below analysis by Jay Cost is terrific and I suggest that anyone interested in what occurred in the Sunshine State read it over.

On a side note-it looks as if contrary to what the pundits thought a couple weeks ago, the Republican nomination might be locked up be February 6th and the Democrats may now be the party to go to the convention.

Here’s a portion of “How McCain Won” by Jay Cost:

John McCain won Florida by putting together the same basic voting coalition he forged in New Hampshire and South Carolina. What is impressive is that he did it in a closed primary. Registered Independents and Democrats were not allowed to vote, but McCain still won. Let’s take a look at how he did it:

McCain once again won those who are disenchanted by the Bush presidency. Most Florida Republicans (68%) approve of the Bush administration. Romney won them, 35% to 28%. McCain, however, scored an overwhelming, 20-point victory among the 32% of voters who disapprove. I think this is one of the evolving stories of the Republican contest. If you like Bush, you go to Romney (or one of the other candidates). If you dislike Bush, you go to McCain.

Popularity: 41% [?]

Last week, during their endorsement of John McCain as the Republican nominee, The New York Times included some choice words for a mayor they supported at one time, Rudy Giuliani.

“The real Mr. Giuliani, whom many New Yorkers came to know and mistrust, is a narrow, obsessively secretive, vindictive man who saw no need to limit police power…”

Giuliani, they asserted, was not the same man as he was during his mayoral tenure. While his campaign has not fared well in most states, Florida seems to be the fighting ground for his candidacy. As he’s currently in fifth place [without a win in any early primary or caucuses], Giuliani needs to hold Florida to show America that he is electable. Fortunately, if current trends hold, Mr. Giuliani will place third in tonight’s primary, behind established frontrunners John McCain and Mitt Romney.

That outcome is better not just for the other Republican candidates, but for America as well. With Giuiliani out of the race, America will be safe from a President who intended to encroach upon their vital Constitutional rights, and a President who would endanger relations with the international community. An America without Rudy Giuliani is an America prepared to confront fearmongering, and an America prepared to blaze the path to a successful future and a new American era. Below, you’ll find a more descriptive analysis of our viewpoints.

The Candidate of Fear

by Zach

As the Republican Party has moved more towards religious and social conservatism, only one candidate has managed to stay in the race without espousing his socially conservative beliefs. Rudolph Giuliani, former mayor of New York City, was that candidate. Unfortunately for his campaign, he’s proved to be far from the ideal social conservative most Republican voters are looking for.  His pro-choice beliefs, while in line with the ideals of many mainstream voters, did not play well with conservatives either.  While I admire Rudy’s resistance to conservative social pressures, the Republicans did not.

Voters should consider themselves lucky. The centerpiece of Giuliani’s campaign has been September 11th. Whereas most Republican candidates used the main focuses of their campaign as a jumping off point for other issues, Giuliani relied at times only on his “tough guy” national security viewpoint. When voters disagreed, Giuliani was always there to tell them that he was the mayor of New York City on 9/11. It’s true. False, however, are most of Giuliani’s comments about the aftermath of September 11th.

September 11th was the worst terrorist tragedy America has ever seen. Yet there are some actions Giuliani took during his tenure as mayor that could have prevented dozens of casualties. Giuliani’s anti-terror headquarters, the $13 million Emergency Operations Center, opened in a building right across the street from the World Trade Center, ignoring the risks posed by terrorist attacks like that of Ramzi Yousef in 1993. Even Giuliani’s emergency management director, Jerome M. Hauer, has criticized his handling of the 9/11 tragedy, claiming Mr. Giuliani is running on a “Grand Illusion.” Giuliani made other errors that contributed to a slower emergency response on 9/11. Procedural lapses in the production of radios and flame retardant firefighter uniforms may have elevated the death toll for first responders. Giuliani’s been criticized for his reaction to the environmental and health concerns of the attacks as well. Giuliani ran a “slipshod, haphazard, uncoordinated, unfocused response” to the health challenges of the attacks. As a result, more than 70% of WTC first responders now suffer long term ills, mainly from breathing in debris that Mayor Giuliani told them was safe. As a result, many firefighters have spoken out against Mayor Giuliani’s campaign.

Without 9/11, there is no substance to Mayor Giuliani’s campaign for the presidency. Despite snags in the public perception of his performance post-9/11, he continues to exploit the fears of Americans in negative and fearmongering campaign advertisements. His “Ready” advertisement has caused a stir among thousands of disgruntled viewers, as it portrays marching terrorists with dangerous voiceovers like “Leaders assassinated. Democracy attacked.” Preying on the fears of Americans is not the way to win a presidency. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama is winning praise for his optimistic and hopeful message for the future of America. Those who endorse him applaud his forward thinking and plans for an America that fits neatly into the new international balance. A Rudy Giuliani presidency, meanwhile, would do the opposite, driving Americans further away from the ideals of freedom that our country is based on.

Giuliani is an avid proponent of the REAL ID Act, a plan to issue a national ID card to all Americans. The REAL ID Act would create the potential for an even larger surveillance state. After President Bush broke FISA precedents illegally, does America really want a president who is openly prepared to spy on them? The ACLU notes that issuing a REAL ID “does nothing to protect against terrorism.” Giuliani, however, still espouses its benefits, and says he’d require Americans to use their “tamper proof ID card” to “work, pay taxes, get online, become a citizen, follow the rules.” In a draconian police state like Giuliani is proposing, Americans would be deprived of crucial rights granted to them by the Constitution. Giuliani is running not just against the majority of Americans’ policies, but against those of the United States Constitution as well.

His inability to capture the interest of Americans in early primary and caucus states like Iowa and New Hampshire led him to focus his efforts on tonight’s Florida primary. Dismal results in the aforementioned early contests have diminished any hope for a Giuliani presidency, and tonight’s loss will hopefully be the death knell to his campaign. Giuliani has the support of neoconservative war hawks, but lacks the support of any American political base. The Republicans don’t support him, his own New York City firemen don’t support him, and, most importantly, Americans do not support Rudolph Giuliani’s candidacy for President of the United States.

Giuliani: Avoiding a Lasting Peace

by Eftychis

In Giuliani’s Foreign Policy essay in Foreign Affairs magazine entitled, “Towards a Realistic Peace” he outlines his plan for strengthening America’s position in the international system. Mayor Giuliani faces two dilemmas with his foreign policy stance. The first is that 9/11 occurred almost seven years ago. The second is that there is nothing in his plan that differentiates him from any of the other Republican candidates; in particular there is nothing to indicate he has more understanding of national security or foreign affairs than legendary, veteran Senator John McCain. As we approach Florida and the subsequent Super-Tuesday primaries it is apparent that the economy belongs to Mitt Romney, social conservatives have found themselves aligned Mike Huckabee, libertarians with Ron Paul, and military and national security conservatives divided between McCain and Rudy Giuliani. In his piece in Foreign Affairs Giuliani writes that we are the, “9/11-generation.” While in many ways this is true, the 2008 election is about the “Iraq generation.” It could be argued that the consequences and ramifications of September 11th 2001 are only just beginning to manifest them across the world, but it is evident that the most contentious event to occur after the mass murder of American citizens at the world trade center is the Iraq war. Yet, Rudy Giuliani does nothing to explain to voters why he is more capable of managing this war than Senator John McCain. McCain stood up to President Bush’s failed military policy in Iraq when Rudy Giuliani was still reading neo-con talking points and now most of the foreign policy advisors who engineered the failed Iraq war have shifted over to the Giuliani campaign. Giuliani has hoped that GOP primary voters will support him because of his national security credentials but I see no evidence for him to make the case that his are any greater than the other candidates and there is nothing he can do to convince GOP voters that he is more capable of winning the war in Iraq than John McCain. If McCain has the war and Romney has the economy, what does Giuliani embody to appeal to voters with?

Popularity: 75% [?]

Our live coverage of President Bush’s 2008 State of the Union address is after the jump for those who would like to replay our live blogging. Thanks for joining us!

We’d like to recommend Slate’s interesting analysis of Bush’s language choice in the State of the Union.  It’s an interesting analysis of trends and the effect of current events on his wording. Lire le reste de cet article »

Popularity: 68% [?]

I am making a bold prediction, but I believe that Romney will take Florida tomorrow.

I know Ryan already posted about McCain’s big endorsement from Governor Crist but the truth is the only real endorsement that matters in Florida is Jeb Bush’s and it is evident that he will not show his support for anyone prior to the state’s primary. While Crist may be able to help get slightly bigger crowds for McCain during stump speeches, he cannot overcome McCain’s two biggest challenges-he is too liberal and is doing nothing to address the housing crisis in his speeches while in Florida. On Meet the Press yesterday McCain said that the economic challenges the country faces are temporary and will be overcome; this may be true, but for the millions of voters whose houses have been foreclosed and whose stock portfolios are dwindling in value these words provide no consolation. Mitt Romney has the economy as his issue and as we can see from Michigan, McCain’s downplaying of the current state of the nations economic health does not benefit him.

Although the polls are not showing this, I believe that Joe Scarborough was right in his prediction today that Mitt Romney will win tomorrow. Many of the voters in central Florida who want to vote for Mike Huckabee have realized in the past two days that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain and like Rudy, he simply does not represent their values. Additionally it appears that because of Romney’s economic experience many of the economic conservatives who had been supporting Rudy or Thompson are turning his way.

Despite McCain’s untrue attacks on Romney’s Iraq War record, he has been unable to change the topic of discussion. No matter how many times he mentions his support of the surge, it does not make the thousands of foreclosed houses in Florida go away. The issue on the forefront of everyones minds in Florida is the economy and nothing McCain can do will change that. Let us not forget where Rudy Giuliani currently sits in the polls, a distant third place. Rudy Giuliani has done nothing but espouse his national security experience for the past month in Florida and it has done nothing for him in the polls.

As long as the issue is the economy in the forefront of people’s minds Romney will out perform his competition.

Popularity: 37% [?]

The Florida debate was very different than any of the GOP debates we have seen so far. The format of the debate itself is not that different, but rather the circumstances surrounding it make it one of the most important discussions amongst the candidates thus far. This is the first debate to occur in either party after one of the major candidates dropped out; Fred Thompson was the only candidate perceived as having a chance to obtain his parties nomination who has so far dropped out. Unlike the past several debates in South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire this event was more of an introduction for the candidates than a closing argument. Due to the tight primary schedule, none of the candidates with the exception of Giuliani have invested great amounts of time in the state thus far and it was their first opportunity to reach Floridian GOP primary voters on their local broadcast stations. Finally, the primary this debate is intended for has the potential to kill off another presidential bid; of course that is if Rudy Giuliani does not win in the sunshine state. With the high stakes surround tonight’s MSNBC debate it is also curious that it was such a passive event, indeed the whole affair was quite civil compared to Monday’s CNN run Democratic blood bath. The question worth asking is, with all of the pressure and importance of this debate, who came out on top? It was without a question Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

It should be first noted that Governor Romney has done something significant over the past three-weeks he has changed his image. In what has to be one of the more impressive political come backs in modern history, the Governor has recovered from two embarrassing defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire and has done so with a whole new approach. As one of his supporters from the beginning, I saw his comprehension of the economy along with his private sector experience and logical consultant based thinking to be his greatest strengths. For far too long his campaign marketed him as something he was not, the GOP candidate least offensive to the many different colored elephants underneath the GOP tent. He won Michigan and Nevada because he spoke to the voters in those states about the economy with a resonance, passion, and understanding that none of the other candidates can. Just as John McCain can discuss the war in Iraq with more authority than his rivals, Romney can do the same on the economy. Luckily for Romney, the focus of the election has shifted in the past two months from the war to the looming economic crisis. This truth along with his new found confidence in himself enabled him to steal the debate from McCain and Giuliani.

The first half an hour of the debate focused on the economy and Romney dominated those first thirty minutes. It became quickly evident that he has made a commitment to tell Floridians that he will turn-around their hurting economy and he was very effective in conveying that message. The fact that Romney has been able to remove some of the shine from his almost too polished demeanor has made him more appealing to voters, but what really helped him tonight was that none of his opponents questioned him on his record. In fact, they did something even stranger than not attack him-they engaged him in ways that provided him with openings to explain even more of his policies and to have even more air time. No one did poorly in tonight’s debate, but Romney just did better than his opponents. At one point I recall Governor Romney received two questions from the moderators and then two from the other candidates; because of this attempted gang up he was given an almost five minute monologue with the voters.

Participants in the GOP Debate on Thursday (L to R): Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Paul, and Huckabee

Romney walked away with the debate because he was able to differentiate himself from the other candidates through his discussion of the economy, his witty attacks on the Clinton’s, and his well-versed rebuttals to Tim Russet’s criticisms of his personal wealth. McCain and Rudy did not win because neither of them were able to grab an issue, the war is McCain’s strong suit but with the shifting focus towards the economy it is clear that he needs to branch out onto other issues. Giuliani’s problem is that he did nothing to convince Florida voters to support him over Mitt Romney for economic reasons; in fact Giuliani talked less about his economic achievements in New York than he has in past debates. Mike Huckabee went into this debate knowing that he will not do well in Florida and I believe he made a wise choice to stick to his social conservative stances and not try and promote himself as an economic or national security candidate. As usual, the other candidate who did very well was Ron Paul; like in most of the debates he partakes however he received very few questions. Another fault of McCain and Giuliani was that neither of them made an attempt to convince former Fred Thompson supporters not to drift towards Romney and polls indicate that the 9% of support Thompson had may be enough to put the Massachusetts Governor into first place. There are still several days until the Florida primary, but if I was a Floridian GOP voter with many foreclosed homes in my neighborhood and tonight was my first introduction to any of the candidates I believe I would have only seen one viable candidate on the stage.

Editor’s Note: Images were added to this post at 4PM on Friday, January 25th.

Popularity: 37% [?]

A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP

U.S. stocks looked set to enter a bear market Tuesday, with stock futures pointing to losses of roughly 5% after two days of relentless selling pressure in overseas markets on fears over a U.S. recession.

Less than two hours before the start of trading, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 516 to 11590. The S&P 500 futures sank 63.8 to 1261.5, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 77.25 to 1772.25. Changes in futures do not always accurately predict early market moves after the opening bell.
____________________

For the best coverage of the global recession I suggest the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg for up to date information and accurate analysis.

Popularity: 26% [?]

It is no secret that Mitt Romney won the Michigan and Nevada primaries because of his strong economic background. While it is true that Romney faced little competition in Nevada and that he was a “native son” in Michigan, his business and executive experience is what put him over the top in the two primary states where the number one issue is the economy.

From the Detroit News-
The optimistic economic message former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney brought to his native state was a big reason he finished on top of Tuesday’s Republican primary here. A solid majority of both Republican and Democratic primary voters said their motivating issue was the economy, according to the National Election Pool exit poll.

According to CNN’s exit polling data from Nevada, Romney beat his rivals on the economy by overwhelming margins. For the Democrats in Michigan, the story was the same. The economy was the most important issue by nearly fifty percent with Iraq a distant second. While it may be too early to tell who is taking a lead in either primary elections, it is clear what issue is becoming-the economy.

About a week ago Goldman Sachs predict that the US economy will find itself in a recession in 2008; which means a decline in economic growth for more than two consecutive sessions (two quarters). Many market analysts believe that recession began prior to the new year with the series of poor fiscal news last December.

One of the least known but best indicators of economic health is the Baltic Dry Freight Index. The index measures the price of shipping dry bulk goods (iron ore, wheat, coal, soybeans, etc…) by sea in cargo ships. A decline in this index means there are less consumers for those goods; currently the biggest consumers of those products are China, India, and the United States. The declining rates indicate a slow down in the global economy, a slow down that the dry bulk market will see before the retail and consumer reports here in the United States. The bulk market also suffers from a problem that much of the economy does. It had built new vessels anticipating continued demand, but the demand from China and India has decreased which means that there is no need for the hundreds of new ships on order. This parallels what has been happening in many other markets, there is a massive surplus of new homes across the US and Europe and thus housing prices have slumped; the same has happened with the automotive market and in other consumer areas such as electronics. On the flip side, supply for natural resources has not caught up to demand so natural gas, oil, grain, corn, copper, and even milk prices have soured anywhere from 4-50% over the past year alone. Consumers are being faced with high mortgage rates, a dollar worth less, and greater expense at their grocery store and the gas station. The dollar will simply not get you as far in 2008 as it did in 2007.

So how does this effect the election? The two states where Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton did best (Michigan and Nevada) are the two states with the highest foreclosure rates and highest unemployment rates of any in the country. The pain that the citizens in these two states are currently feeling will unfortunately be felt throughout the country by November of this year.

Jim Cramer made an interesting point the other day; since statisticians first began measuring personal per capita income the incumbent party or candidate ALWAYS looses the election when per capita income decreased. By November 2008 average per capita income will have decreased due to economic decline in the first several quarters of this year.

This would imply that the Democrats will win this election no matter what; but the question that arises is what happens when a business man is thrown into the equation. Indeed, Mitt Romney did win an election in the most liberal state in the country and was able to do so while the state faced a massive fiscal crisis. If economic news continues to become more dire over the next several months (and it almost certainly will) then Mitt Romney will have a big advantage over his rival John McCain. Indeed, even Rudy Giuliani could benefit from the change in voters’ number one issue. In Florida he is now focusing on his fiscal record as Mayor and how he turned around NYC’s languishing economy during the 1990s. Even Mike Huckabee’s populist message may begin to resonate more strongly as the economy takes a turn for the worse. The one who this does hurt is John McCain who has almost no economic credentials and even opposed the Bush tax cuts which are considered a staple of accepted conservative economic policy. In addition, McCain also finds himself on the wrong side of the issue that Republicans have claimed to be their second most important issue-illegal immigration.

In the Democratic primary this should also favor Hillary Clinton as she appears to have an upper hand over Senator Obama among voters who consider the economy to be the biggest issue. Many voters become nostalgic when they recall the great economy under Clinton.

I am always skeptical of those who heavily blame or give credit to Governors and Presidents for the quality of the economy that existed when they governed. Outside of having (some) control over the governments budget, there is little they can do to effect monetary policy (controlled by the Fed) and there is nothing they can do to tackle cyclical events in the economy. Despite their lack of control, the Commander and Chief can set tone and direction. FDR and then Reagan changed the direction of the nation’s fiscal vision most drastically during the 20th century. Romney and Clinton most certainly have the same vision for a strong future American economy but their means to try and achieve that end will be drastically different.

The pundits have not been able to use past data to predict this election because well quite frankly 2008 is different than any previous election. I still believe the Democrats will have a major advantage come this November, but even if that is the case I see little reason why a voter should choose a Senator to fix the economy over a business man and turnaround artist.

Popularity: 39% [?]

I want to extend my thanks to Gary Starikoff and Scott Walterman at XM for having me on the air this morning to discuss the election. I was interviewed on POTUS 08’s “The Morning Briefing” about my thoughts on the election and my disagreement with the findings of the American University Poll that they reported last week. I also had the chance to shamelessly promote our blog and I hope that any listeners who decided to drop by our website find our ideas valuable.

For those not familiar with the POTUS 08, it is XM’s 24 hour presidential election channel where they do everything from interview the political candidates to discuss the issues and analyze the horse race with a wide range of informed pundits and experts.

For those of us who are politically involved, POTUS 08 has by far the best political coverage of the election and alone is worth justifying the cost of XM.

Popularity: 30% [?]