New School Politics

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We’d like to thank our readers and viewers for tuning into our live coverage this evening from 7:30 to 10:30. We worked rather hard to fill the three hours, but we hope our viewers enjoyed the coverage. Despite hiccups here and there, we think it was run pretty smoothly as well. We really enjoyed ourselves throughout this experience, and we look forward to doing this again. As soon as the next episode of New School Politics LIVE is scheduled, we’ll be sure to post about it on the blog. Again, we’ll include the live text blog archive after the jump. Please remember it’s live and may include objectionable content that slipped through our moderators. Thanks very much for watching! Please leave us comments and criticism, and we’ll try to incorporate everything into our next LIVE show.

Popularity: 37% [?]

As soon as polls closed sources called Georgia for Obama. The exit polls broke it down by race and gender: Obama won 83% of the black vote (53% of the GA Dem electorate). He lost white women 59%-39%, but did win white men 50%-45%. Obama can be expected to win a large portion of the southern primaries because of the fact that a large part of the southern Dem electorate is black (i.e. South Carolina).

The GOP race is too close to call at this point. Although exit polls have come in and they show it to be extremely close among all three candidates.

Popularity: 23% [?]

The Democratic Party has declared themselves the party of change in this election.  All of their presidential candidates have claimed to be more in tune with the will of the American people than their Republican counterparts.  Ironically however, the proccess through which one will be granted the Democratic Party’s nomination has a very undemocratic quality: superdelegates.Many people, including myself until recently, are not aware of their existence in the nomination process, let alone realizing how much influence they truly have.  A superdelegate is a delegate that is not bound by the results of their state’s primary or caucus.  No matter how wide the margin of victory is in their state for a particualr candidate, they are free to vote for a different one.  Superdelegates make up approximately 20% of the total amount of Democratic delegates, meaning the people only have 80% of the say, unlike the Republican party where the people are the only determining factor.Superdelegates were created in the 1970s as party leaders saw their ability to control the nomination waning.  It was a way for them to still have some power and provide a check to the people.  It is an incredibly elitist policy that defies the party’s rhetoric about standing for all of the little people in this country, and it is also the reason Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination.Superdelegates are basically made up of party leaders and long-serving elected Democrats, many of whom are intimate acquaintances of, indebted to or part of the political machine of both Bill and Hillary.  There is not any doubt who most of them will vote for when deciding between a Clinton and an unfamiliar face in Washington.  In most counts Clinton has about double the amount of superdelegates as Obama.  In this extremely close race the difference may not even lie with the American people, and, if that is the case, Hilary wins and Obama loses because of one of the qualities that has made him so appealing throughout the country, his perceived distinctness from the Washington political culture and resolve to change it.

Popularity: 29% [?]

This Tuesday the New School will be hosting its biggest event ever in order to report on the Super Tuesday primary results. All of the New School’s bloggers will be present to cover the election live. Additionally, for the first time ever, we will be streaming live video coverage through Mogulus onto the website featuring a panel discussion hosted by Zach, Efty, and Ryan, along with live news, prerecorded interviews, and more. The video coverage will include footage of McCain, Obama, and Clinton campaign events that the New School has attended in the past week.

Live text and video blogging will being at 7 PM EST and continue throughout the night.

Finally, we welcome and encourage viewer participation, so if you would like to enter any video or text posts be sure to send them to us!

Popularity: 39% [?]

As January comes to a close, the Obama campaign has easily surpassed a fundraising goal set earlier today. In a mass e-mail from the Obama campaign earlier today, the campaign stated that they were looking for more donors to boost their current 242,000 individual donor count above 250,000. Tonight, their website shows that they surpassed that milestone and had approximately 253,198 supporters [as of this writing] during the month of January. Obama’s e-mail touts the wide variety of donors, and mentions the fact that Obama has received donations from more than 500,000 individual donators [a figure he surpassed in the hours before the Iowa caucuses]. Obama, ever the politician, attributes this “unprecedented base of individual donors” to his rejection of special interest money.

We rejected donations from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs and relied on ordinary people to take ownership of this campaign — and the result was more donors than any presidential primary campaign has had in history.

During the last three months of 2007, Obama raised approximately $23.5 million. In January alone, however, the candidate has raised in excess of $32 million. This is a record for candidates still faced with a primary challenge. For all those who thought Hillary was sure to win the nomination following her victory in New Hampshire, Obama’s fundraising successes should give them second thoughts. Obama may not have the richest supporters, but he has among the widest networks of individual donors, and it’s the number of people, not the size of their donations, that counts when the Democrats will be picking a presidential candidate. MSNBC is reporting that the Republican candidates didn’t even come close to the massive figure released by the Obama campaign, and the Clinton camp has yet to release their figures for January.

Scores of Obama Supporters Have Rallied Around Their Candidate

Obama’s “Yes We Can” slogan seems to be convincing America that he’s electable as well, as he’s been victorious in several early primaries. With Edwards out of the race, it will be interesting to see where his supporters end up. Both candidates are vying for his endorsement, and many unions and organizations that once backed Edwards have now switched their affiliation to Obama. Whether or not Edwards will endorse either Democrat before Super Tuesday remains to be seen.Tonight’s Democratic debate, called a “love movie” by the Agence France-Presse, saw the start of cordial relationships between the two candidates. This is a marked difference between the finger pointing and negative comments circulating between John McCain and Mitt Romney, who still have other candidates to worry about. Both Democrats made it clear that they’d like to see the Republicans out of the White House in 2009. While their platforms differ only slightly, the CNN-sponsored debate focused on three main areas, healthcare, Iraq, and illegal immigration. CNN’s catalog of quotes from the debate provides a window into the platforms of each candidate, while their Election Center provides further information for undecided voters.

Cordial Relations Marked Tonight’s Democratic Debate

Most pundits, including CNN’s Bruce Schneider, are calling the debate a draw. Schneider said that Democrats are “happy with their choice this year, but they don’t want to have to make it.” Fortunately for the undecided, the coming weeks will shed more light on the records and positions of both candidates. Unfortunately, however, many will have to make their decisions in short order for the primaries on February 5th. Join us for live, broadcasted video coverage of Super Tuesday next week on February 5th for more about the candidates and the status of the race.

Popularity: 92% [?]

Today was the most significant day in the 2008 presidential race. Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards have dropped out of the presidential race and both will turn support to the remaining candidates. As of today, for the first time since this campaign began, both the Democrats and the Republicans are now embroiled in two way races. John McCain and Mitt Romney will battle it out for the Republican nomination and Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton will duke it out over Super Tuesday.

The biggest news in the interim is Rudy Giuliani’s impending withdrawal and endorsement of John McCain. With Rudy out of the race it will unite the moderates of the Republican party and combine their support with those of the independents who have so far given McCain South Carolina and New Hampshire. Additionally, with Rudy out of the race John McCain becomes the defacto national security candidate.

Mitt Romney still has the monetary advantage, but as it looks right now McCain is ahead in primary states on both seaboards and with a winner-take all system on the Republican side I am betting that McCain will tie up the nomination on Super-Tuesday. Romney will rely on a western strategy to wrap up delegates but the big states that McCain will win are worth many more delegates than the likes of Utah, Colorado, and Montana. Either Republicans will accept John McCain’s candidacy on Tuesday and he will walk to the nomination or they will show up strong for Romney in an attempt to stop the “Maverick” candidate. Either way, the plurality system inherent in most February fifth states means that we will likely know who the Republican nominee will be by next Wednesday.

The Democratic story is very different. Most Democratic states are not winner take all; rather candidates are awarded delegates based on districts. This means that after Super-Tuesday Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama could be within 100 delegates of one another.

With the Democratic race so close, it is very possible that John Edward’s support-or lack their of-of either candidate could make or of the Democrats campaigns. If John Edward’s does not endorse anyone before super-Tuesday, his followers will likely turn towards Hillary Clinton. The Clinton’s will only be injured by Edward’s withdrawal if he endorses Obama. Although during the debates it often seemed that Edwards was aligned with Obama, it appears that the Clinton’s have been heavily courting Edwards for the past few weeks. According to NBC news, Edwards has spoken several times today with the Clinton’s and it is not even known if he has communicated with the Obama campaign. Either way, with the Democratic nomination being as close as it is, John Edwards has the power to put either Hillary or Barrack over the top.

Only one thing is certain going into February fifth, no political pundits predicted that there would only be four viable candidates remaining this early in the race.

Popularity: 26% [?]

Caroline Kennedy’s rousing Obama endorsement over the weekend was an impassioned plea for voters to choose a “President like my father.” Calling Obama a man who could “be..the president…for a whole new generation of Americans,” Kennedy’s endorsement made big news, attracting the most views of any article on the New York Times website.

Caroline Kennedy Speaks to Obama Supporters at American University [Photo: Obama Campaign]Her editorial was complemented by rumors over the weekend of an endorsement from famous Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, and the speculation was confirmed Monday when Kennedy made his endorsement official with a speech at American University in Washington, DC. Praising Obama as a President who “can renew our belief that our country’s best days are still to come.” Joined by son Patrick, Kennedy said Obama had “extraordinary gifts of leadership,” yet still complimented Edwards and Clinton, promising to support whichever candidate the Democratic Party decided to nominate. Kennedy elaborates on his stance on the Huffington Post. The Obama campaign has also collected news coverage from the day as well.Obama has collected dozens of endorsements in recent days, including that of Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who delivered last night’s State of the Union rebuttal. Newspapers haven’t been shy about endorsing him either, and both the Chicago Tribune and the San Francisco Chronicle have come out in favor of Obama. All praise Obama’s enthusiasm and his ability to unite the country to lead us forward together. Having just watched Kennedy’s endorsement, I can say that it’s a worthwhile speech that certainly appeals to patriotism, political service, and Obama’s vision of the future.

Barack Obama and Senator Edward Kennedy at the American University Rally [Photo: Obama Campaign]

There’s been little news for Hillary Clinton’s campaign following the New York Times endorsement she received earlier in the month. In a article called “Kennedys for Clinton,” Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Kerry Kennedy hand their support to Hillary Clinton, dissenting from the Obama line taken by the more influential political figures in the family. Meanwhile, she remains focused on attempting to get delegates from Florida to count for the nomination while Bill stumps elsewhere in the country.

Will Supporters Like These Propel Obama to the Presidency? [Photo: Obama Campaign]

The “spark of hope” Kennedy claims Obama has lit within America has certainly inspired dozens of others besides the Kennedys. We’ll soon find out if it’s enough to win him the Democratic nomination and eventually, the Presidency of the United States.

Popularity: 53% [?]

On the same day as Caroline Kennedy released an editorial supporting Sen. Obama for President, her uncle, Senator Teddy Kennedy, also endorsed Obama.

From the Boston Globe:

WASHINGTON — Senator Edward M. Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama for president tomorrow, breaking his year-long neutrality to send a powerful signal of where the legendary Massachusetts Democrat sees the party going — and who he thinks is best to lead it.

Kennedy confidantes told the Globe today that the Bay State’s senior senator will appear with Obama and Kennedy’s niece, Caroline Kennedy, at a morning rally at American University in Washington tomorrow to announce his support.

That will be a potentially significant boost for Obama as he heads into a series of critical primaries on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.

This is more good news for Obama, especially in a delegate-rich state like Mass. where he now has both Senators Kerry and Edwards supporting him.

Popularity: 12% [?]

First, last night Governor Charlie Crist of Florida endorsed Sen. McCain for president (video here). This is very big for John McCain in Florida. Crist is a very popular governor with around 60% approval. This comes just days after FL Senator Mel Martinez also gave McCain an endorsement that could especially help him with Cuban-American Republicans this Tuesday.

At the time these two endorsements came in, polling indicated that the Florida GOP primary was neck  and neck between McCain and Mitt Romney, with Romney on the upswing from Thompson’s withdrawal and an excellent showing in Thursday’s debate.

On the Democratic side, the New York Times ran an editorial by Caroline Kennedy endorsing Barack Obama. The opinion was how one would expect yet profound in some ways. It made the case that Obama was the first candidate she knew of who could unite and inspire hope among Americans since her father. Here’s a taste:

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

Its funny because the editorial cites almost nothing substantive, rather chosing to concentrate on just the tone and affect of the Senator’s campaign. At the same, the Kennedy name still means a lot to many–hence why both Obama and Clinton have been hoping for Ted Kennedy’s endorsement–and the endorsement certainly could compound the bounce he ought to receive from his SC victory.

Popularity: 26% [?]

Obama was predicted to win South Carolina by about 12 points; He won by 28 points, more than doubling Hillary Clinton’s votes 55%-27%.

Many of the Obama romantics who would be quick to name this a “historic victory,” but not only doubt that there is anything exceptional about it, but I doubt that it will deter the Clinton machine from trucking on through Super Tuesday and to the nomination.

Long lauded as the campaign that transcends race, the Obama candidacy has difficulty claiming that title after SC. According to exit polls, the Senator won black voters, who are 55% of the electorate, 78%-19%. Among white voters however he did not fair well. At all. As a matter of fact he lost white vote to both Edwards and Clinton 40%-36%-24%, respectively. Voter turnout grew from about 300,000 in 2004 to 500,000 in ‘08, while black voter turnout more than doubled from 100,000 to over 200,00 in that time.

Of course, if that breakdown were to stand for the remainder of the primary, Obama would be crushed on Super Tuesday. And while there is no evidence that the same breakdown will be maintained across the country, it is still an indicative breakdown of race in the party.

The same pattern was not as apparent in Iowa and New Hampshire, those states may have been different. And South Carolina may have changed things. It was a very bitter race; it had certain racial undertones; and it featured a large black faction. All three of those “politics as usual” factors have their way of marginalizing lofty and idealistic fundament of Obama’s campaign. If Obama becomes the “black candidate” or this race becomes a dogfight, his transcendent status will become a transient victim of the Clinton dynasty. To some extent, this has already come true (as Dick Morris predicted).

Earlier today, the former President played off Obama’s win in South Carolina (video here) before it was even won, mentioning that “Jesse Jackson won SC in 1984 and ‘88…” the obvious implication being that Obama only made a showing in the state because he is black, further implying that his overall campaign is not very serious.

The Clintons know what they are doing. Better than anyone else. They are running a hard campaign against Obama; their basic goal is to frame his candidacy as impractical and not serious. Hence they are inclined to play petty political hardball, because hardball is a game the Clintons always win. And while they played it in South Carolina and lost, it was a small price to pay for the results it will return on February 5th.

Popularity: 23% [?]