New School Politics

Why the Fuss? Iowa Doesn’t Matter

Zach | 3 01 2008

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You’ve seen us post the early results of the Iowa caucuses, and now the winners have been officially crowned. I didn’t post predictions, but [yes, this is much easier in hindsight] I had Huckabee winning Iowa without an official call on the Democratic caucuses. While many news organizations have hailed tonight as the “first major surprise of the 2008 presidential campaign,” it really bears little significance on the race for the mainstream candidates. Few future presidents have emerged with victories in the Iowa caucus, and there’s no reason to accept things will be any different this time. I have lots more to say about the majority of the candidates in the coming days, but here’s what I’ve deduced thus far.

Results / PredictionsRepublicans
Mike Huckabee: Not quite as big of a surprise as most news organizations are making of it. Huckabee appeals mainly to the majority of Iowa’s religious voters, and if they’re basing their convictions on “morals,” he’s the safe bet between what many perceive as a field littered with those with disrespect for religious traditions [Mormons have been criticized by the Evangelical establishment, along with Huckabee himself; Giuliani is a divorcée and doesn't have the cleanest ethical record]. Regardless, Huckabee will lose steam when faced with a more educated and less religious electorate like the one he’s likely to see in New Hampshire. The past several weeks have seem him demonstrate remarkable stupidity in the realm of international politics, and Americans are in desperate need of a president with international expertise at this stage in global politics. Huckabee’s article in Foreign Affairs didn’t quite seem like his voice, as this is the candidate who claims he can’t keep up with news like the release of a new National Intelligence Estimate. A Huckabee nomination could seal the rift between the Democrats and Republicans, leaving it open for a more moderate Democratic candidate.

Mitt Romney: Romney’s the party’s favored candidate, and there’s a reason. Currently, he’s the only normal Republican in the field [besides John McCain] with valuable executive experience. His business experience can’t hurt as well, and Mr. Romney has proven time and time again that he is capable of leadership. His lack of success in Iowa may be attributed to his status as a Mormon, and I think he’ll pick up steam in other states as the election tournaments move out of the Bible Belt.

Rudy Giuliani: The one candidate whose disappointing showing in Iowa has nearly no bearing on his political career. Giuliani has focused more on New Hampshire, and skipped out on appearing in Iowa to continue campaigning in the Northeastern state. As previously mentioned, Giuliani’s ethical issues [affairs, Bernard Kerik, etc.] could overshadow his strength as an executive. Biden, however, seems to have nailed Giuliani’s strategy when he pointed out that his rhetoric usually contains “a noun, a verb, and 9/11“ Fearmongering works to a point, but it’s time to move on to something else. Without a good showing in New Hampshire, the Giuliani campaign may be on its last legs.

Others: McCain really seems to be coming back. I think the steam he gained in recent weeks will show through with a victory in New Hampshire, a state known to like moderate candidates as opposed to established partisans. Thompson, meanwhile, staved off news of quitting by tying McCain. Ron Paul’s showing was impressive considering his standing with the partisan establishment, but he unfortunately will have a hard time making any real progress [even with a win in NH].

Democrats
Barack Obama: Obama’s all about energy. His campaign has, from the beginning, tried to separate him from his opponents by highlighting his youthful vigilance and the new perspective he brings to Washington. I think his approach is working, even with less progressive voters in states like Iowa. Hillary, constantly perceived as too regimented, represents what once was in Washington, and after eight years of poor governance from the Bush Administration, it’s time for a change. If Obama can keep this energy going throughout the next couple of days, he could walk away with a victory in New Hampshire as well.

John Edwards: The populist’s second-place showing means he doesn’t have to drop out of the race quite yet. Newsweek’s cover article on “The Sleeper,” seems to have come true a bit, but I don’t think Edwards has the appeal to draw some Republicans . His antics may meld well with the current Democratic base, but an Edwards nomination may not bode so well for the Democratic party. I see Edwards being the last candidate to drop out, but he’s not really viable enough to support on a national level. His new “plan” on the removal of Iraq’s troops certainly doesn’t garner any praise from me, as not training the military and police forces adequately could lead to the collapse of the Iraqi government.

Hillary Clinton: She’s not fizzling, and she’ll have Bill no matter what happens. Still, without some sort of second wind, the Clinton campaign may see some struggle in the future.

Others: It’s sad to see Chris Dodd, our Senator, drop out of the race. He championed the fight against telecom immunity recently, and that provided him with a slight boost in support. His drop was accompanied by a similar announcement from Senator Joseph Biden, another Democratic mainstay.

The Unknown
Michael Bloomberg: Bloomberg’s been in the news recently, with a discussion of his meeting with notoriously bipartisan Sam Nunn coming up. Unity08, a new group meant to support a nonpartisan candidate, seems to really champion the idea of a Bloomberg candidacy. He keeps refusing to announce, but I think Bloomberg will not hesitate to announce if Huckabee becomes the Republican nominee [not likely, unless the Republicans are eager to cannibalize themselves]. It could be interesting with a third-party candidate who can support himself, and an announcement form Bloomberg could radically change the future of American politics.

Conclusion
Nothing conclusive is coming out of the Iowa caucuses, but results from New Hampshire’s primary next Tuesday will help to change the face of the race. It’s been interesting so far, and I look forward to observing the next stages of one of America’s most important electoral contests.

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Tags: iowacaucuses, liberal content