New School Politics

The ramifications of Iowa-

Eftychis | 4 01 2008

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The events that occurred in Iowa last night are sure to be the topic of discussion in the national media until the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. It is important, however, to examine the real meaning behind Iowa and how it will effect the election. Those who support the winners (Huckabee and Obama) claim that it will ensure their candidates victory; voters and pundits who are allied with the under performing candidates (Romney and Hillary) observe that Iowa often has little impact on their respective parties eventual nominees. 2008 is different than past elections-many of us are tempted to note that out of the last four US presidents, three of them did not win the Iowa caucuses. Despite this, there are circumstances in this election that dramatically redefine what winning-and perhaps more importantly what loosing Iowa means for the candidates.

The mainstream media often loves to talk about the “big mo” which refers to the momentum candidates’ garner after winning the caucuses. My friend Zach pointed out in his post that Iowa is in no way the end of the campaigns, indeed he is right in perceiving that in many ways it is just the beginning. Yet while that is the case, with a tighter primary schedule, Iowa will have a bigger impact on the nominating process, not a smaller one. The first thing to note is that in previous elections the New Hampshire primary took place almost a month after Iowa, now there is less than a week between the two events. The attention and fame candidates gain for winning Iowa will inspire their supporters to show up and vote for them in the polls, and may even attract the vast percentage of undecided independents in New Hampshire to their side.

The biggest news of last night was without question Obama’s stunning victory. Zach can attest that the day before I had predicted that Obama would win in Iowa-although I went against my own gut feeling and posted on the blog that Hillary’s organization would put her over the top. Indeed, I was correct in estimating that the Clinton machine had a massive and far superior organizational structure on the ground in Iowa, yet that organization did not help her escape a crushing defeat. Obama won in Iowa because of enthusiasm from voters; he was able to energize nearly 100,000 people who had never attended a caucus before to go and support him. Many of the campaigns’ had earlier predicted that if more than 200,000 people arrived to vote in the Democratic caucus, Obama would win. Despite Hillary’s army of 5,000 drivers, millions spent on advertising and paid volunteers, Obama’s message of change is what resonated for the voters in Iowa. Perhaps it is the realization that if Hillary Clinton is elected it will have been 20 years since a non Bush or Clinton was in the white house, or that there are over 100,000,000 million Americans’ who have never seen an executive branch not led by one of the two political dynasties. There may be many reasons behind Obama’s rise to the top of the polls, but one thing is certain-his momentum is real, it is massive, and if it continues through New Hampshire it will make him the most probable forty forth president of the United States.

In the Wall Street Journal today, there is an article about Hillary Clinton’s strong support in New Hampshire and the strength of her organization. Is our memory that short? Just yesterday the pundits were saying the same thing about her organization in Iowa (indeed, I was one of them) but in New Hampshire that will not be able to overcome Obama’s “big mo.” Voters now know that the hue of invincibility and inevitability around Hillary Clinton was a falsity. If Obama can turn out 100,000 supporters for the dark and cold caucus precincts in Iowa, then he can certainly motivate many times that number in the ballot casting state of New Hampshire. There is no question that Obama’s win will attract the thousands of independents in New Hampshire and that their support could put him over the top there. Already he leads the polls in New Hampshire outside of the margin of error and I expect new polling conducted over the weekend to show an even wider gap between the two leading Democratic candidates. With Iowa under his belt and New Hampshire likely to follow, I can safely say that Obama will be in a comfortable position to grab the Democratic primary.

I do not like to bring up the issue of race, but last night the senator from Illinois became the first African-American to win a major national primary, he did it in a state with a black population less than two percent. If Obama can pull off a win there you can bet that he will devastate the Clinton’s in South Carolina where the African-American population is near thirty percent.

There is an interesting dynamic in South Carolina; many of the older leaders of the black community are staunch Clinton supporters, they were the ones who called Bill Clinton was the first “black” president. At the same time the younger African American demographic in the state are strong backers of Obama who they perceive as the first African American with a real shot at the white house. Now that Obama has proven his electability in Iowa, he will surely lock up those young black votes in South Carolina. More importantly, if he can hinder Hillary’s efforts in New Hampshire and win by even a slim margin, many of the old guard in the African American elite who previously supported the Clinton’s will listen to their hearts and cast their ballots for the young Illinois Senator. So once again I predict that if Obama’s momentum holds and he wins New Hampshire (as I am predicting he will) then he will win South Carolina, if that happens I do not believe that Senator Clinton will be able to regroup her campaign in time to hold onto the nomination. If Obama wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina I predict he will win the Democratic nomination and if that occurs he will most certainly become the next president of the United States. Senator Obama has much broader electability than his two Democratic rivals and while the Republican I have endorsed, Governor Romney could defeat Hillary Clinton-I do not believe neither he nor any other Republican has the ability to defeat Senator Obama in a general election.

For the Republicans, the results of Iowa will have very different ramifications. Unlike the Democrats where Iowa created a new front-runner for their nomination, Iowa has made the Republican primary process even more difficult. It will now be a couple months before the Republican Party even begins to rally around a single candidate. While Mike Huckabee did win the primary due to a significant outpouring of evangelical support, he simply does not have the money, organization, or support of the Republican establishment needed to secure the nomination. Mitt Romney is the only Republican candidate who could at least appease the evangelicals in their wishes for the protection of traditional “moral values” while also securing the support of the economic and national security conservatives. Huckabee’s victory in Iowa has however thrown Romney’s campaign into a serious tough spot, for the past several weeks he has been fighting a two front war (see Germany circa 1944) in Iowa and New Hampshire and he has had to split his admittedly vast resources between the two. In fact, this past week John McCain has had New Hampshire almost to himself as both the Democratic and Republican front-runners spent their time in Iowa.

The newest polls do show McCain slightly up in New Hampshire, a state that has always been kind to his “maverick” status. Despite reviving his campaign, he has been unable to reignite that “maverick” image. Now that status belongs to his much better financed opponent Ron Paul. Both men need to do well in New Hampshire, as it is the only state where either has a chance for an early victory. Unfortunately for the legendary Arizona Senator, Ron Paul has much stronger support among independents and is likely to attract many more of them to the polls than he is. There is another problem for McCain’s heavily independent reliant strategy- the Illinois Senator who sits across the aisle. Despite Obama and McCain belonging to two different party nominating processes, the fact that New Hampshire allows independents to register for either party for the primary process means that many independents will register with the party where they believe they can have the most impact. For many independents and undecided voters, Obama’s recent victory in Iowa will make them believe that if he wins in New Hampshire he can win the nomination. A large percentage of them will register of Democrats with the belief that Obama is a viable alternative to Clinton.

The events in the Democratic primary will have an effect on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, but John McCain also has problems on his own side of the aisle. For starters he has his archrival Governor Romney who has a very strong organization there and was the governor of the neighboring state. Although McCain leads in a couple of polls, for the most part the race is perceived in a dead heat with both candidates within the margin of error of one another. Despite the battle wagging between McCain and Romney there are still other candidates in New Hampshire’s primary. While Romney’s second place win was good news for McCain, Thompson’s surprising bronze medal was not. If Thompson had underperformed and dropped out and subsequently endorsed McCain, it may have given him the edge he needed to win in New Hampshire. Thompson’s results mean that he is still in the race through South Carolina and thus it makes it even more difficult to predict what will occur in the live free or die state. It is important to note that McCain’s rise in New Hampshire has not been taken from Romney votes-McCain has gained votes from undecided voters who were not attracted to Giuliani or Thompson. After Iowa it is apparent that Thompson still does have a pulse and now some voters in New Hampshire who would have supported McCain will go back to Thompson. As in 2000, McCain has a strategy of relying on independent and undecided voters- but many of them will go to the Democratic primary in order to stop Hillary Clinton and support Obama. Additionally, the 1988 libertarian candidate Ron Paul has stolen McCain’s maverick and tax killing image. It will be a close race in New Hampshire, but I would be very hesitant in saying that Iowa spelled the end of the Romney campaign, in fact I believe its results were a mixed bag for both Romney and McCain. Romney’s silver medal benefits McCain, but the strong showing by Ron Paul and Thompson may split much of his support in New Hampshire.

Governor Romney is in an interesting place right now. His campaign is by no means dead, and in fact many of the other Republican campaigns would kill for his position. There were however high expectations for the Governor and he was outdone by a much less experienced and under funded candidate. Romney’s chances of winning New Hampshire have been diminished because of his second place finish last night, however it does not mean he is out of contention for the nomination. Quite the contrary; if he places second in New Hampshire and then goes on to either first or second in Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida he will have a serious case for the nomination. If chaos theory does ensue with a Huckabee win in Iowa, a McCain win in NH, a Romney win in Michigan, a Thompson win in South Carolina, and a Giuliani win in Florida none of the candidates will be in prime position. But currently Romney is positioned as the only candidate projected to finish in the top two in all of those early states and is also the only viable alternative to Giuliani in the Tsunami Tuesday primaries. On the other hand, if Romney does squeak out a win in New Hampshire I believe he will quickly recover and win in Michigan and then Nevada. I still contend that Romney is the most viable option for the Republican’s and has excellent economic and foreign policy proposals. That said, if he wins New Hampshire I believe he will land the nomination sooner and if he looses but does well in all of the other primary states he will still be just as well seated as any of the other candidates to win the nomination closer to the convention.

I also believe that Governor Romney is the only person who could beat the Clinton machine if she receives the nomination. Yet, if Obama does continue to gain momentum and spreads his “message of hope” across the nation I do not believe there is any other candidate from either side of the aisle who could defeat him. On the topic of Bloomberg, I believe that Obama’s gaining momentum and calls for a single united electorate are just what the current New York Mayor is looking for and that it will dissuade him from making his on presidential bid. The race will become much more clear by next Wednesday; the results in New Hampshire will either mean an unstoppable democratic front runner or create a very tight race between two well financed candidates. On the Republican side it will either mean the reviving of Mitt Romney’s campaign and his propulsion back into front-runner status or it will lead to the much feared chaos theory scenario. Additionally, the WSJ did report that on Monday, Mayor Bloomberg will meet with six major Republicans and six major Democrats to discuss the need for a change in the direction of America. Whether this is an imminent prelude to Bloomberg’s run or if it is a call for campaigning in line with Obama’s message of unity is yet to be seen, but what can be certain is that Mayor Bloomberg has the ability to influence this election whether he runs or not.