New School Politics

January Predictions

Ryan | 2 01 2008

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Here are my presidential primary forcasts for this month:

DEMS:

Iowa: 1. Clinton 2. Edwards 3. Obama

New Hampshire: 1. Clinton 2. Obama 3. Edwards

South Carolina: 1. Clinton 2. Obama 3. Edwards

Florida: 1. Clinton 2. Obama 3. Edwards

If these predictions come true, or even close to true, then Sen Clinton will be smoothly sailing to the nomination. Currently Iowa is virtually a three way tie according to the poll averages. Although Obama seems to be doing slightly better in the polls, one should be skeptical because many of his supporters are young and tend to be less stalwart to the political process–think Howard Dean ‘04.

A strategic victory for Hillary is signified by outdoing Obama. Obama, because he has less leverage nationally, needs the victory in Iowa more. New Hampshire is close between Clinton and Obama with polls showing that Clinton has a slight lead. The question there is whether independants can show up in large enough numbers for Obama.

From there, South Carolina looks like it may be contingent on how much momentum the frontrunners have going in, as it appears to be a virtual tie there too. Florida as well as the Super Tuesday states should go to Clinton overwealmingly barring a big surge from Obama in the earlier states.

GOP:

Iowa: 1. Romney 2. Huckabee 3. McCain 4. Thompson 5. Paul

New Hampshire: 1. McCain 2. Romney 3. Paul 4. Giuliani 5. Huckabee

South Carolina: 1. Huckabee 2. Romney 3. McCain 4. Giuliaini 5. Thompson

Florida: 1. Giuliani 2. Romney 3. Huckabee 4. McCain 5. Thompson

The Republican primary is such a crap shute right now, its driving me crazy. As much as thoroughly as I have studied this primary it remains difficult to forecast, because a lot that is happening is very unexpected–Huckabee’s rise, McCain’s fall and resurrection, Ron Paul’s money, Fred Thompson’s “campaign”, et al. Many questions remains unanswered until then I cannot confidently predict the nominee although I surmise that Romney probably has the best chance right now, followed by Giuliani, McCain, and Huckabee (in that order). My questions include:

-Will Huckabee’s caucusers show up on their own and match the organization and money of Romney’s IA campaign?

-Will early success translate to national support for Mitt Romney?

-If Giuliani does not make a good showing in the first three prominant states will his national popularity dissapear?

-Will independants show up for McCain like they did in 2000, or even half as much? And, is independant support accurately indicated in the NH polls?

-Can McCain generate support around the country from a victory in NH?

-How much will debate appearences affect the polls (indication from the past is that they help McCain and Huckabee significantly)?

-And, finally, does Fred Thompson have a pulse?