New School Politics

Giuliani floundering in Florida?

Ryan | 17 12 2007

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A new Rasmussen poll conducted from the 13th to the 17th of the month measured the following preferences among likely Florida GOP primary voters:

Huckabee: 27%

Romney: 23%

Giuliani: 19%

This comes as a surprise, as Giuliani has consistantly lead in Florida polling by 10-20% over the past months. The shift is stark, however much movement in opinion has been evident in the past couple of weeks and this is the first poll conducted among Republicans in Florida since December 4th.

This comes as great warning to a Giuliani campaign, which in trailing in the traditional first three states, has placed great weight on the Florida outcome.

Giuliani’s big state strategy may be floundering as Huckabee is spiking in national polls. If the Mayor does not win decisively in California, I do not believe he can win the nomination. In fact, at the present rate that the GOP primary is changing, Huckabee may soon be the front runner. Nevertheless, it believes that the race has finally matured, with three candidates pulling ahead of others–(from left to right) Giuliani as the national security and socially moderate candidate, Romney as the “normal”, in-between conservative, and Huckabee as the right-wing son of the Christian Conservative faction.