New School Politics

Ryan’s 2008 Prediction

Ryan | 21 02 2007

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I’ve been saying it since a little before the midterm elections but I thought it was about time I definitively mark my words.

2008 Prediction: Giuliani over Hillary.

Giuliani

1) Very successful, efficient chief executive in NYC; tuned the city around.

2) 9/11 (been through the shadow of the valley of death, can also offset his problem of closeness to Bush on Iraq issue).

3) Leadership. Seems repetitive, but to the extent that it is it bears repeating he has experience speaking on the topic, knows how to lead, and will successfully use it as the theme of his campaign (i.e. “Rudy leads, gets things done”)

4) A good conservative–cut taxes, a lot; turned deficit into surplus; recognizes and perfoms fundamental jobs of government well (law and order); got the whole bad-ass, patriotic New Yorker thing going for him.

5) Religious right has lost wind in the past couple of years. GOP will not worry that much about his views on abortion, gays. Plus, there isn’t a definite candidate of the religious right.

Note that thebigger challenge for Rudy will be winning the crowded, competitive GOP primary. If he does, I am pretty confident he will take it all.

Hillary

1) Money.

2) “Mainstream” Democrat. Positioned herself well on the issues. Edwards and Obama both running to the left of her, at the same time she hasn’t gone too far to the center.

3) Institutional Dem support. She will get the backing of most Democratic pols, endorsements of many of the interests (ie unions), connections from her husband’s presidency, etc.

4) Political smarts. Not just her husband’s either. She has experience playing the game (much more than Edwards or Obama) and she plays it well.

5) Bill, Slick Willy, the former president, her husband.

Editor’s Note: these 2008 predictions are solely those of the author and do not represent the general consensus of the authors of New School Politics.