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As Ryan reported earlier, Governor Romney has officially dropped out of the 2008 presidential race. With his announcement, many of his supporters, including myself, will back John McCain. Romney did several things with his well timed announcement at CPAC, he has made himself into perhaps one of the most respected conservative elder statesmen in the party and he has also set himself up well for a second bid for the nomination in 2012. Additionally he has given McCain the nomination and has spared the Arizona Senator from having to fight him off in a war of attrition.

By “suspending” his race at CPAC today, Mitt Romney will ensure that his race ended on a high note-in front of a friendly audience where he was declared a hero and a son of the party. For the next several nights, clips from his speech will be played on the prime time political shows and the Sunday talk shows; the media will portray Romney as perhaps one of the most respected men in the Republican party and we should all expect him to have a very prominent place with a speech at the convention this summer. In the event that McCain does not win (or if he does not seek a second term after becoming POTUS) Romney will be in a very good place to restart his presidential bid. By not fighting on, Romney and his entire campaign will be treated with respect from the GOP. The Governor will have a broad base of support in the future. Indeed, a second presidential bid for Romney in 2012 could be much easier. He will have the issues of his religion, conservative values, and military experience behind him. The next president will most likely either withdraw from Iraq or oversee a period of significant improvements in the theater which will put less emphasis on the war and thus less importance on personal military experience for the commander and chief (something Romney lacks). Additionally, he addressed his Mormon faith during this election and in the last few weeks it has become evident that the Republican Party was willing to look past it and embrace him despite his unorthodox religious beliefs. The GOP establishment and even the social conservatives have accepted the Massachusetts Governor over the past few weeks and would be willing to support him in the future. This is good news for his future campaign manager as it means he no longer has to be marketed as the “least objectionable” Republican candidate; instead, he can run on his managerial experience and business and economic prowess while knowing he has the support of the national security and Christian conservatives. All of the faults Governor Romney had that precluded him from attaining the Republican nomination will be ignored or not considered vital if he does seek to run a second time.

Governor Romney did a great service to the Republican Party today. By ending his presidential bid, he has made John McCain the Republican nominee-it is mathematically impossible for either Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee to win the nomination-perhaps months before the Democrats have a front-runner. The Democratic party has been generating a lot more excitement and raising significantly more money than any of the Republican candidates in this election, but if the Democratic race goes to the convention (which looks likely), John McCain will have an additional six months to raise money and build a very strong grass routes campaign. This extra time will be crucial for McCain to mend the bruises between the national security, economic, and social conservatives and could enable the Republican Party to once again rally behind one candidate. In comparison, the Democratic Party is split down the middle and is embattled in a political civil war pitting the African American voting block against the female voting block and the educated Democratic activists against the working class. Contrary to what all of the pundits thought a few months ago, the Democratic Party may be on the verge of falling into shambles while the Republicans may rally together. If Hillary Clinton goes into the Democratic convention with less delegates than Barrack Obama, but wins the nomination because of the loyalty of her super-delegates expect a full-scale revolt from many Democratic voters.

Whether or not Mitt Romney is offered or accepted the vice presidential spot on the Republican ticket, it can be said that he has had an enormous amount of influence on the party today and has perhaps provided the adhesive bandage the party needed to once again secure the White House in 2008. The situation will continue to improve in Iraq and by this November many Americans will be against the withdrawal and surrender that Democrat’s are calling for. John McCain’s opposition to the Bush strategy will demonstrate to moderates, independents, and strong conservatives that he knows how to win the war.
Aside from winning the nomination outright, I cannot see any other way for Governor Romney to make as big of an impact on the party as he did today.

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Just a couple of hours ago, sources (here and here) began to report that Mitt Romney will withdraw from the Republican presidential race after his poor showing on Super Tuesday. The story was supposedly confirmed by GOP officials, including two of Romney’s advisors.

He is expected to make the announcement at the big Conservative Political Action Conference in D.C. this afternoon. Assuming it is true, the move would leave just three candidates in the race: John McCain way out in front, Huckabee, and Ron Paul pulling up the rear. His withdrawal makes apparent that he feels McCain’s lead is too substantial to overcome at this point, and that he believes he will become the GOP nominee.

Gov. Romney had emerged as the conservative alternative to the moderately-perceived McCain, and was the popular candidate among prominent conservative sources like in talk radio (Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, et al) and National Review magazine.

More to come.

UPDATE: Video of Romney speaking at CPAC can be seen here, LIVE.

UPDATE 2: Romney officially announced that he will drop out of the race in his CPAC speech. He cited that despite enormous differences with McCain, he agrees that Iraq is the transformative issue facing America and that if he continued fighting McCain it would only disable him in a general election and make the election of a Democrat more likely.

As he announced his withdrawal, loud jeers could be heard in the crowd deriding the decision to drop and John McCain who has come under much fire from conservatives.

McCain is to speak at 3 pm EST.

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As politically incorrect, perhaps, as it may sound, the Democrats voting is mainly breaking down according to race and sex. I would not be a good blogger if I did not notice it and report it. The GOP on the other hand seems to be sparring over ideology. Here is what Super Tuesday has shown:

Democrats:

You know you’re a Obama supporter if you are: 1) black  2) young  3) wealthy and educated.

You know you’re a Clinton supporter if you are: 1) a woman  2) hispanic  3) old  4) lower-middle class.

National numbers and state exit polls demonstrate the validity of my general claims.

This is not to say that there are no ideological patterns among Democratic voters as more self-proclaimed “very liberal” voters tend to support Obama, while moderately “liberal” ones find themselves with Clinton. But at the same time Obama has received a consistent rush of independent (including moderates and conservatives) voters throughout the process. Additionally, Clinton was victorious by 10 points in the American fountainhead of liberalism, Massachusetts, despite the fact that Obama had the active support of both of its famous senators. Hence, while there are some philosophical trends, they are often contradicted. The fact remains that most of the candidates platforms are very similar (compare here and here), and thus, political ideology is marginalized in voters’ minds.

Another notable trend is that of racial “tension” or “divide” among the Democratic electorate. What I find from exit polling is that if there is a large minority voting block in any given state, white Dems will tend to vote in the other direction. For example, if there are a large number of hispanics (pro-Clinton) in a state, the whites will vote disproportionately for Obama, while if there are large amount of blacks (pro-Obama), the whites will vote for Clinton. This comes in addition to the fact that Hispanics and Blacks (who otherwise share many demographic characteristics) are voting in clearly opposite directions in part because cultural tensions are still apparent (additional evidence) between the two racial groups. Overall Clinton got about 60% of the hispanic vote, while Obama procured more than 80% of the black vote.

The two largest hispanic states on Super Tuesday were California and New Mexico, where hispanics were 30% and 35% of the electorate, respectively. Among those hispanics, Clinton won 67% and 62% of the vote, respectively. However, Obama tied her among white voters in CA (winning white men by 20 pts) and actually won the white vote in NM 55-43. Nationally Obama carried just over 40% of the total white vote last night.In Alabama and Georgia, the Super Tuesday states with the most black voters (51% of each electorate), Obama received 84% and 88% of the vote and won a commanding victory in the state. However, he lost the white vote significantly in both cases, with only 43% in GA and 25% in AL.

The irony of it all is that the party which lauds itself as a vehicle for racial and gender progress, is by no means above voting on such superficial factors.

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After the single biggest day of voting in primary history here is how the race stands:

Total Democratic Delegate Count:

Clinton: 1012

Obama: 933

Total GOP Delegate Count:

McCain: 697

Romney: 244

Huckabee: 187

At the end of voting last night Obama won 13 states and Clinton won 8. Obama tended to win deep southern states with large black populations as well as Midwestern states, while Clinton won heavily populated states states, especially ones in the Northeast, as well as states with large hispanic populations. (Exit polls here will give you an indication of these trends.)

For the other side, McCain won 9, Romney won 7, and Huckabee won 5. Put simply, Romney won midwestern states, Huck won southern states, while McCain won the most states and the biggest states.

The Democratic nominee needs 2025 delegates to take the nomination, while the GOP nominee requires 1191. As you can see things are very close on the Democratic side after the big night with Clinton holding on to a 68 delegate lead by virtue of nothing more than 83 more super-delegates (Frank wrote an lucid post explaining the Democratic super-delegates here) she has than Obama. This race is anything but over as there are many more delegates to be had.

The Repulican race is not nearly as close. To the contrary, with Huckabee winning some southern states and Romney performing below what was needed of him, John McCain continues to pull way out in front in the race for the nomination.

In the next week look to big primaries including Washington and Louisiana on Saturday and Virginia and Maryland on Tuesday.

UPDATE: My sources for the above delegate projections are CBS, AP, Washington Post, and RealClearPolitics. Note that numbers are constantly changing and that projections differ according to source. For instance, NBC News has Obama out in front of the delegate count by a very small margin as of Wednesday night. Hence, we dont really know the exact counts at this point. All that we do know is that the Dem race is effectively tied at this point.

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To cap off an eventful night, sources have called California for Hillary Clinton and John McCain pretty early on. The state is not winner take all for either party, but it still has the most delegates for both. The state was really a big swing primary for both as polls had it as a tossup going into tonight. Hence, it is a really big swing in momentum for the Clinton and McCain campaigns. At this point in time California and Super Tuesday as a whole leads me to conclude that McCain is pulling way out in front for the GOP, while Clinton retains a slight edge for the Dems.

In hind sight I do not think that we should have been so surprised at Clinton or McCain winning. First of all, CA has a huge hispanic population (around 30% of Dem electorate), two-thirds of which voted for Clinton. This was more than enough to overcome white and black voters–the majority of both voted for Obama in CA. (Exit polls here). On the GOP side, Gov. Arnold Schwartzenegger’s endorsement in the past week may very well have put McCain over the top in what was thought to be a close race.

Additionally, sources have just called Missouri for John McCain with more than 97% reporting. This primary is winner take all, and has the fourth most delegates of the night for the GOP. It was up until now a tossup between the Senator and Gov. Huckabee who has done extremely well in the south tonight. McCain beat Huckabee by just 1% there.

MO has yet to be called for the Dems. With 97% reporting, about one half percent separates the two candidates.

UPDATE: Missouri is called for Obama with 98% reporting. He is ahead by about .6% as of now.

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We’d like to thank our readers and viewers for tuning into our live coverage this evening from 7:30 to 10:30. We worked rather hard to fill the three hours, but we hope our viewers enjoyed the coverage. Despite hiccups here and there, we think it was run pretty smoothly as well. We really enjoyed ourselves throughout this experience, and we look forward to doing this again. As soon as the next episode of New School Politics LIVE is scheduled, we’ll be sure to post about it on the blog. Again, we’ll include the live text blog archive after the jump. Please remember it’s live and may include objectionable content that slipped through our moderators. Thanks very much for watching! Please leave us comments and criticism, and we’ll try to incorporate everything into our next LIVE show.

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As soon as polls closed sources called Georgia for Obama. The exit polls broke it down by race and gender: Obama won 83% of the black vote (53% of the GA Dem electorate). He lost white women 59%-39%, but did win white men 50%-45%. Obama can be expected to win a large portion of the southern primaries because of the fact that a large part of the southern Dem electorate is black (i.e. South Carolina).

The GOP race is too close to call at this point. Although exit polls have come in and they show it to be extremely close among all three candidates.

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In the first results of Super Tuesday, the 18 delegates from the winner-take-all Wester Virginia Caucuses went to Mike Huckabee this recently on the second ballot of voting. The victory came about after McCain’s delegation, which only secured 15% of the votes on the first ballot, swung their support to the Arkansas Governor, who’s percentage jumped from 33% to 52% in the second round.

The series of events in West Virginia  reaffirm the suspicion that Huckabee is staying in the race in order to take conservative voters away from Mitt Romney which necessarily aids John McCain in his campaign for the nomination. One thing to watch for tonight is how conservatives in the south affect the primary results of states such as Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, etc., and if it factors in an overall loss for Mitt Romney on this Super Tuesday.

Of course, you should stay tuned for the New School’s live coverage tonight in order to find out.

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The Democratic Party has declared themselves the party of change in this election.  All of their presidential candidates have claimed to be more in tune with the will of the American people than their Republican counterparts.  Ironically however, the proccess through which one will be granted the Democratic Party’s nomination has a very undemocratic quality: superdelegates.Many people, including myself until recently, are not aware of their existence in the nomination process, let alone realizing how much influence they truly have.  A superdelegate is a delegate that is not bound by the results of their state’s primary or caucus.  No matter how wide the margin of victory is in their state for a particualr candidate, they are free to vote for a different one.  Superdelegates make up approximately 20% of the total amount of Democratic delegates, meaning the people only have 80% of the say, unlike the Republican party where the people are the only determining factor.Superdelegates were created in the 1970s as party leaders saw their ability to control the nomination waning.  It was a way for them to still have some power and provide a check to the people.  It is an incredibly elitist policy that defies the party’s rhetoric about standing for all of the little people in this country, and it is also the reason Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination.Superdelegates are basically made up of party leaders and long-serving elected Democrats, many of whom are intimate acquaintances of, indebted to or part of the political machine of both Bill and Hillary.  There is not any doubt who most of them will vote for when deciding between a Clinton and an unfamiliar face in Washington.  In most counts Clinton has about double the amount of superdelegates as Obama.  In this extremely close race the difference may not even lie with the American people, and, if that is the case, Hilary wins and Obama loses because of one of the qualities that has made him so appealing throughout the country, his perceived distinctness from the Washington political culture and resolve to change it.

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This Tuesday the New School will be hosting its biggest event ever in order to report on the Super Tuesday primary results. All of the New School’s bloggers will be present to cover the election live. Additionally, for the first time ever, we will be streaming live video coverage through Mogulus onto the website featuring a panel discussion hosted by Zach, Efty, and Ryan, along with live news, prerecorded interviews, and more. The video coverage will include footage of McCain, Obama, and Clinton campaign events that the New School has attended in the past week.

Live text and video blogging will being at 7 PM EST and continue throughout the night.

Finally, we welcome and encourage viewer participation, so if you would like to enter any video or text posts be sure to send them to us!

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