New School Politics

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As January comes to a close, the Obama campaign has easily surpassed a fundraising goal set earlier today. In a mass e-mail from the Obama campaign earlier today, the campaign stated that they were looking for more donors to boost their current 242,000 individual donor count above 250,000. Tonight, their website shows that they surpassed that milestone and had approximately 253,198 supporters [as of this writing] during the month of January. Obama’s e-mail touts the wide variety of donors, and mentions the fact that Obama has received donations from more than 500,000 individual donators [a figure he surpassed in the hours before the Iowa caucuses]. Obama, ever the politician, attributes this “unprecedented base of individual donors” to his rejection of special interest money.

We rejected donations from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs and relied on ordinary people to take ownership of this campaign — and the result was more donors than any presidential primary campaign has had in history.

During the last three months of 2007, Obama raised approximately $23.5 million. In January alone, however, the candidate has raised in excess of $32 million. This is a record for candidates still faced with a primary challenge. For all those who thought Hillary was sure to win the nomination following her victory in New Hampshire, Obama’s fundraising successes should give them second thoughts. Obama may not have the richest supporters, but he has among the widest networks of individual donors, and it’s the number of people, not the size of their donations, that counts when the Democrats will be picking a presidential candidate. MSNBC is reporting that the Republican candidates didn’t even come close to the massive figure released by the Obama campaign, and the Clinton camp has yet to release their figures for January.

Scores of Obama Supporters Have Rallied Around Their Candidate

Obama’s “Yes We Can” slogan seems to be convincing America that he’s electable as well, as he’s been victorious in several early primaries. With Edwards out of the race, it will be interesting to see where his supporters end up. Both candidates are vying for his endorsement, and many unions and organizations that once backed Edwards have now switched their affiliation to Obama. Whether or not Edwards will endorse either Democrat before Super Tuesday remains to be seen.Tonight’s Democratic debate, called a “love movie” by the Agence France-Presse, saw the start of cordial relationships between the two candidates. This is a marked difference between the finger pointing and negative comments circulating between John McCain and Mitt Romney, who still have other candidates to worry about. Both Democrats made it clear that they’d like to see the Republicans out of the White House in 2009. While their platforms differ only slightly, the CNN-sponsored debate focused on three main areas, healthcare, Iraq, and illegal immigration. CNN’s catalog of quotes from the debate provides a window into the platforms of each candidate, while their Election Center provides further information for undecided voters.

Cordial Relations Marked Tonight’s Democratic Debate

Most pundits, including CNN’s Bruce Schneider, are calling the debate a draw. Schneider said that Democrats are “happy with their choice this year, but they don’t want to have to make it.” Fortunately for the undecided, the coming weeks will shed more light on the records and positions of both candidates. Unfortunately, however, many will have to make their decisions in short order for the primaries on February 5th. Join us for live, broadcasted video coverage of Super Tuesday next week on February 5th for more about the candidates and the status of the race.

Popularity: 47% [?]

Yesterday Ben Smith and David Paul Kuhn of the Politico.com wrote that Rudy Giuliani’s defeat and subsequent endorsement of John McCain signaled the end of “9/11 politics.”

They went on to say,
_________

“Rudy Giuliani’s distant third-place finish in Florida may put an end to his bid for president, and it seems also to mark the beginning of the end of a period in Republican politics that began on Sept. 11, 2001.”
_________

The article does raise a valid point that 9/11 no longer has the emotional significance for most Americans’ that it once did. Despite this fact, the consequences of September eleventh are still with us in many forms; the war in the Afghani and Iraqi theaters, the expensive federal budget on national security, the straining of the United States military and intelligence infrastructure, and the threat of nuclear proliferation throughout the world are all issues brought to the forefront of America’s consciousness because of what happened at the World Trade Center. All of these issues are still discussed daily in the foreign policy and national security community and to say that they will go away simply because Rudy Giuliani’s campaign has come to an end is simply incorrect.

The sub-prime mortgage crisis has been exacerbated by the Fed’s continual rate cuts, which were a reaction by Greenspan to attempt and stabilize the financial markets after the uncertainty caused by 9/11.

There is no question that the Giuliani campaign collapsed because of his reliance on 9/11 as a political punch line; yet to suggest that September 11th will not hold a prominent place in both Republican and Democratic politics for many years to come is absurd. 9/11 has radically changed how American’s view the world and their perception of our place in it; it has given cause to two wars which have subsequently strained the nation’s relationship with other actors in the international system. The spot light that 9/11 put on the Middle East has also given rise to the massive amount of speculation in the oil markets and has provided dictators like Putin to exert more control over their populations.

Eight years after 9/11 we are still learning about the ramifications on the economy, international politics, war and peace, civil liberties, and our way of life as a whole. September 11th was an event that will define the first 20 years of this new millennium and to dismiss it based upon the incompetency of one political campaign is not only arrogant, but dangerous.

Popularity: 34% [?]

New School Politics began in December of 2006. Its three founders, Eftychis, Ryan, and Zach, sought to create a forum for political discourse that included all viewpoints. While we began as an objectivist, a liberal, and a conservative, we’ve now grown to a group of more than ten writers. All are students, and all write from a different perspective.

Just more than a year has gone by since we opened NSP, and we think the coming months will be even better than the past year. To kick things off right, we’ve redesigned the site with a bit of help from Julien De Luca. You’ll hopefully find the aesthetic improvements to make the site much more visually appealing, and we expanded the total area taken up by the text to increase the amount of content we could fit on the page. We’ve made a host of tech tweaks in recent weeks to make the site easier to use while adding new features. We’re still playing around with the finer points of the design, but I think it’s safe to call this New School Politics 2.0.

Perhaps the most important change of all, however, is our post frequency. Months ago, readers might have not seen new content from NSP in days. Now, the new New School Politics has been publishing more than two to three posts per day, and we’ve had an astounding nine posts in the past thirty six hours. Our readership seems to notice too, as our analytics metrics are showing more return visitors who delve deeper into NSP’s vast archives for more content. In the coming days, we’ll hopefully have some new writers join our staff, as well as having our current staff ratchet up the post frequency even more.

We’ve also expanded into other areas besides traditional written posts. In the coming weeks, New School Politics will announce further endeavors into rich media, including a podcast. We have several episodes already recorded, and they’ll be put up in the next couple of weeks. Last week’s Blog of the Union attracted dozens of readers to interact and debate with NSP’s editors and some of its authors. It’s great to interact with readers, and we encourage you to comment on the site, or post our content elsewhere [like digg, reddit, or del.icio.us] . Next week, we’ll intensify our foray into Web 2.0 with a live video broadcast on what’s been dubbed “Super Duper Tuesday” by the mainstream media. Half of our staff will cover the primary results via liveblogging, as with the State of the Union. The other half will participate in New School Politics Live, a new show that we’ll produce using the Mogulus’ online broadcasting system. More details will be posted about that tomorrow.

We’re proud of what we’ve done so far, and we hope you continue to read as we expand further. January has been our best month at New School Politics, with more than twice the readers of any other month we’ve had before. We couldn’t have done any of this without our readers. It’s great to know that every day, there are people who truly care about the fate of our nation, and who are eager to debate about politics and economics. Candidates like Barack Obama have espoused change throughout their candidacies, and we’ve changed nearly everything at New School Politics. We think it’s for the better, and we hope to interact with you in the coming months as we continue our coverage of the 2008 elections and world politics.

Popularity: 21% [?]

Today was the most significant day in the 2008 presidential race. Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards have dropped out of the presidential race and both will turn support to the remaining candidates. As of today, for the first time since this campaign began, both the Democrats and the Republicans are now embroiled in two way races. John McCain and Mitt Romney will battle it out for the Republican nomination and Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton will duke it out over Super Tuesday.

The biggest news in the interim is Rudy Giuliani’s impending withdrawal and endorsement of John McCain. With Rudy out of the race it will unite the moderates of the Republican party and combine their support with those of the independents who have so far given McCain South Carolina and New Hampshire. Additionally, with Rudy out of the race John McCain becomes the defacto national security candidate.

Mitt Romney still has the monetary advantage, but as it looks right now McCain is ahead in primary states on both seaboards and with a winner-take all system on the Republican side I am betting that McCain will tie up the nomination on Super-Tuesday. Romney will rely on a western strategy to wrap up delegates but the big states that McCain will win are worth many more delegates than the likes of Utah, Colorado, and Montana. Either Republicans will accept John McCain’s candidacy on Tuesday and he will walk to the nomination or they will show up strong for Romney in an attempt to stop the “Maverick” candidate. Either way, the plurality system inherent in most February fifth states means that we will likely know who the Republican nominee will be by next Wednesday.

The Democratic story is very different. Most Democratic states are not winner take all; rather candidates are awarded delegates based on districts. This means that after Super-Tuesday Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama could be within 100 delegates of one another.

With the Democratic race so close, it is very possible that John Edward’s support-or lack their of-of either candidate could make or of the Democrats campaigns. If John Edward’s does not endorse anyone before super-Tuesday, his followers will likely turn towards Hillary Clinton. The Clinton’s will only be injured by Edward’s withdrawal if he endorses Obama. Although during the debates it often seemed that Edwards was aligned with Obama, it appears that the Clinton’s have been heavily courting Edwards for the past few weeks. According to NBC news, Edwards has spoken several times today with the Clinton’s and it is not even known if he has communicated with the Obama campaign. Either way, with the Democratic nomination being as close as it is, John Edwards has the power to put either Hillary or Barrack over the top.

Only one thing is certain going into February fifth, no political pundits predicted that there would only be four viable candidates remaining this early in the race.

Popularity: 31% [?]

Caroline Kennedy’s rousing Obama endorsement over the weekend was an impassioned plea for voters to choose a “President like my father.” Calling Obama a man who could “be..the president…for a whole new generation of Americans,” Kennedy’s endorsement made big news, attracting the most views of any article on the New York Times website.

Caroline Kennedy Speaks to Obama Supporters at American University [Photo: Obama Campaign]Her editorial was complemented by rumors over the weekend of an endorsement from famous Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, and the speculation was confirmed Monday when Kennedy made his endorsement official with a speech at American University in Washington, DC. Praising Obama as a President who “can renew our belief that our country’s best days are still to come.” Joined by son Patrick, Kennedy said Obama had “extraordinary gifts of leadership,” yet still complimented Edwards and Clinton, promising to support whichever candidate the Democratic Party decided to nominate. Kennedy elaborates on his stance on the Huffington Post. The Obama campaign has also collected news coverage from the day as well.Obama has collected dozens of endorsements in recent days, including that of Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who delivered last night’s State of the Union rebuttal. Newspapers haven’t been shy about endorsing him either, and both the Chicago Tribune and the San Francisco Chronicle have come out in favor of Obama. All praise Obama’s enthusiasm and his ability to unite the country to lead us forward together. Having just watched Kennedy’s endorsement, I can say that it’s a worthwhile speech that certainly appeals to patriotism, political service, and Obama’s vision of the future.

Barack Obama and Senator Edward Kennedy at the American University Rally [Photo: Obama Campaign]

There’s been little news for Hillary Clinton’s campaign following the New York Times endorsement she received earlier in the month. In a article called “Kennedys for Clinton,” Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Kerry Kennedy hand their support to Hillary Clinton, dissenting from the Obama line taken by the more influential political figures in the family. Meanwhile, she remains focused on attempting to get delegates from Florida to count for the nomination while Bill stumps elsewhere in the country.

Will Supporters Like These Propel Obama to the Presidency? [Photo: Obama Campaign]

The “spark of hope” Kennedy claims Obama has lit within America has certainly inspired dozens of others besides the Kennedys. We’ll soon find out if it’s enough to win him the Democratic nomination and eventually, the Presidency of the United States.

Popularity: 24% [?]

Although we recommend you read our extensive coverage of President Bush’s State of the Union address, Mahalo Daily’s compressed “State of the Union in 60 seconds“ video provides a quick recap of the speech, nailing all the critical points. It’s embedded below.

Popularity: 23% [?]

Had I taken some of these thoughts into consideration I would not have predicted Romney to win Florida and despite what Ryan says about my Romney bias, my thoughts were based upon analysis of polling information that showed the economy as the top issue for Floridians, and his rising numbers in the polls. The below analysis by Jay Cost is terrific and I suggest that anyone interested in what occurred in the Sunshine State read it over.

On a side note-it looks as if contrary to what the pundits thought a couple weeks ago, the Republican nomination might be locked up be February 6th and the Democrats may now be the party to go to the convention.

Here’s a portion of “How McCain Won” by Jay Cost:

John McCain won Florida by putting together the same basic voting coalition he forged in New Hampshire and South Carolina. What is impressive is that he did it in a closed primary. Registered Independents and Democrats were not allowed to vote, but McCain still won. Let’s take a look at how he did it:

McCain once again won those who are disenchanted by the Bush presidency. Most Florida Republicans (68%) approve of the Bush administration. Romney won them, 35% to 28%. McCain, however, scored an overwhelming, 20-point victory among the 32% of voters who disapprove. I think this is one of the evolving stories of the Republican contest. If you like Bush, you go to Romney (or one of the other candidates). If you dislike Bush, you go to McCain.

Popularity: 34% [?]

With some sources confirming, it appears that McCain is pulling ahead in Florida and will probably win the state ahead by a score of 35%-31% with about 60% reporting.

Also, rumors are that Rudy will drop out of the race after a third place finish in Florida and will endorse John McCain in California tomorrow. Time broke the story. This could really aid McCain on Super Tuesday, especially in the northeast, where he is the clear frontrunner as of now.

Also, Huckabee intends to stay in the race, which will probably rob Romney of valuable conservative voters.

UPDATE: NBC News and National Journal report that Giuliani will drop out of the race and endorse McCain at the Reagan Library tomorrow (re: Sr. Giuliani official).

Popularity: 21% [?]

Last week, during their endorsement of John McCain as the Republican nominee, The New York Times included some choice words for a mayor they supported at one time, Rudy Giuliani.

“The real Mr. Giuliani, whom many New Yorkers came to know and mistrust, is a narrow, obsessively secretive, vindictive man who saw no need to limit police power…”

Giuliani, they asserted, was not the same man as he was during his mayoral tenure. While his campaign has not fared well in most states, Florida seems to be the fighting ground for his candidacy. As he’s currently in fifth place [without a win in any early primary or caucuses], Giuliani needs to hold Florida to show America that he is electable. Fortunately, if current trends hold, Mr. Giuliani will place third in tonight’s primary, behind established frontrunners John McCain and Mitt Romney.

That outcome is better not just for the other Republican candidates, but for America as well. With Giuiliani out of the race, America will be safe from a President who intended to encroach upon their vital Constitutional rights, and a President who would endanger relations with the international community. An America without Rudy Giuliani is an America prepared to confront fearmongering, and an America prepared to blaze the path to a successful future and a new American era. Below, you’ll find a more descriptive analysis of our viewpoints.

The Candidate of Fear

by Zach

As the Republican Party has moved more towards religious and social conservatism, only one candidate has managed to stay in the race without espousing his socially conservative beliefs. Rudolph Giuliani, former mayor of New York City, was that candidate. Unfortunately for his campaign, he’s proved to be far from the ideal social conservative most Republican voters are looking for.  His pro-choice beliefs, while in line with the ideals of many mainstream voters, did not play well with conservatives either.  While I admire Rudy’s resistance to conservative social pressures, the Republicans did not.

Voters should consider themselves lucky. The centerpiece of Giuliani’s campaign has been September 11th. Whereas most Republican candidates used the main focuses of their campaign as a jumping off point for other issues, Giuliani relied at times only on his “tough guy” national security viewpoint. When voters disagreed, Giuliani was always there to tell them that he was the mayor of New York City on 9/11. It’s true. False, however, are most of Giuliani’s comments about the aftermath of September 11th.

September 11th was the worst terrorist tragedy America has ever seen. Yet there are some actions Giuliani took during his tenure as mayor that could have prevented dozens of casualties. Giuliani’s anti-terror headquarters, the $13 million Emergency Operations Center, opened in a building right across the street from the World Trade Center, ignoring the risks posed by terrorist attacks like that of Ramzi Yousef in 1993. Even Giuliani’s emergency management director, Jerome M. Hauer, has criticized his handling of the 9/11 tragedy, claiming Mr. Giuliani is running on a “Grand Illusion.” Giuliani made other errors that contributed to a slower emergency response on 9/11. Procedural lapses in the production of radios and flame retardant firefighter uniforms may have elevated the death toll for first responders. Giuliani’s been criticized for his reaction to the environmental and health concerns of the attacks as well. Giuliani ran a “slipshod, haphazard, uncoordinated, unfocused response” to the health challenges of the attacks. As a result, more than 70% of WTC first responders now suffer long term ills, mainly from breathing in debris that Mayor Giuliani told them was safe. As a result, many firefighters have spoken out against Mayor Giuliani’s campaign.

Without 9/11, there is no substance to Mayor Giuliani’s campaign for the presidency. Despite snags in the public perception of his performance post-9/11, he continues to exploit the fears of Americans in negative and fearmongering campaign advertisements. His “Ready” advertisement has caused a stir among thousands of disgruntled viewers, as it portrays marching terrorists with dangerous voiceovers like “Leaders assassinated. Democracy attacked.” Preying on the fears of Americans is not the way to win a presidency. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama is winning praise for his optimistic and hopeful message for the future of America. Those who endorse him applaud his forward thinking and plans for an America that fits neatly into the new international balance. A Rudy Giuliani presidency, meanwhile, would do the opposite, driving Americans further away from the ideals of freedom that our country is based on.

Giuliani is an avid proponent of the REAL ID Act, a plan to issue a national ID card to all Americans. The REAL ID Act would create the potential for an even larger surveillance state. After President Bush broke FISA precedents illegally, does America really want a president who is openly prepared to spy on them? The ACLU notes that issuing a REAL ID “does nothing to protect against terrorism.” Giuliani, however, still espouses its benefits, and says he’d require Americans to use their “tamper proof ID card” to “work, pay taxes, get online, become a citizen, follow the rules.” In a draconian police state like Giuliani is proposing, Americans would be deprived of crucial rights granted to them by the Constitution. Giuliani is running not just against the majority of Americans’ policies, but against those of the United States Constitution as well.

His inability to capture the interest of Americans in early primary and caucus states like Iowa and New Hampshire led him to focus his efforts on tonight’s Florida primary. Dismal results in the aforementioned early contests have diminished any hope for a Giuliani presidency, and tonight’s loss will hopefully be the death knell to his campaign. Giuliani has the support of neoconservative war hawks, but lacks the support of any American political base. The Republicans don’t support him, his own New York City firemen don’t support him, and, most importantly, Americans do not support Rudolph Giuliani’s candidacy for President of the United States.

Giuliani: Avoiding a Lasting Peace

by Eftychis

In Giuliani’s Foreign Policy essay in Foreign Affairs magazine entitled, “Towards a Realistic Peace” he outlines his plan for strengthening America’s position in the international system. Mayor Giuliani faces two dilemmas with his foreign policy stance. The first is that 9/11 occurred almost seven years ago. The second is that there is nothing in his plan that differentiates him from any of the other Republican candidates; in particular there is nothing to indicate he has more understanding of national security or foreign affairs than legendary, veteran Senator John McCain. As we approach Florida and the subsequent Super-Tuesday primaries it is apparent that the economy belongs to Mitt Romney, social conservatives have found themselves aligned Mike Huckabee, libertarians with Ron Paul, and military and national security conservatives divided between McCain and Rudy Giuliani. In his piece in Foreign Affairs Giuliani writes that we are the, “9/11-generation.” While in many ways this is true, the 2008 election is about the “Iraq generation.” It could be argued that the consequences and ramifications of September 11th 2001 are only just beginning to manifest them across the world, but it is evident that the most contentious event to occur after the mass murder of American citizens at the world trade center is the Iraq war. Yet, Rudy Giuliani does nothing to explain to voters why he is more capable of managing this war than Senator John McCain. McCain stood up to President Bush’s failed military policy in Iraq when Rudy Giuliani was still reading neo-con talking points and now most of the foreign policy advisors who engineered the failed Iraq war have shifted over to the Giuliani campaign. Giuliani has hoped that GOP primary voters will support him because of his national security credentials but I see no evidence for him to make the case that his are any greater than the other candidates and there is nothing he can do to convince GOP voters that he is more capable of winning the war in Iraq than John McCain. If McCain has the war and Romney has the economy, what does Giuliani embody to appeal to voters with?

Popularity: 53% [?]

Reports of voter fraud in Florida are rampant.  Here’s an account from the Sunset Sentinel:

In northern Coral Springs, near the Sawgrass Expressway and Coral Ridge Drive, David Nirenberg arrived to vote as an independent. Nevertheless, he said poll workers insisted he choose a party ballot.

“He said to me, ‘Are you Democrat or Republican?’ I said, ‘Neither, I am independent.’ He said, ‘Well, you have to pick one,”’ Nirenberg said.

In Florida, only those who declare a party are allowed to cast a vote in that party’s presidential primary.

Nirenberg said he tried to explain to the poll worker that he should not vote on a party ballot because of his “no party affiliation” status.

Nirenberg said a second poll worker was called over who agreed that independents should not use party ballots, but said they had received instructions to the contrary.

“He said, ‘Ya know, that is kind of funny, but it was what we were told.’ … I was shocked when they told me that.” Nirenberg said he went ahead and voted for John McCain.

Hmm… can someone say that rinos are no longer an endangered species?

Popularity: 38% [?]